The Crypto Weather Forecast is my daily take on the crypto market, sometimes serious, sometimes sarcastic, often with a wink, andΒ Always Honest.
Oops was I wrong? Wrong about the pending relief rally? BTC dropped from 32K all the way back to 29K....thatΒ΄s no rally that is a dump. So was that the dead cat bounce already?
I donΒ΄t know, I have no crystal ball and just forecast based on the data and market sentiment. The data shows that the Terra Dip is being bought and that the inflation is less than last month. This means that possibly the FED has done their job right for once.
Talking about the FED they made their plans for the short term clear 50 points in June, 50 points in July, and then a review. That took a lot of uncertainty out of the market.
On top of that ChinaΒ΄s lockdowns are losing up.
Then why the dip?
Fear, the 32K resistance did not break easily and people rather take a small profit on what they bought buying the dip than a loss. So lotΒ΄s of selling pressure as soon as the uptrend stagnates.Β
Do I still believe in the relief rally?
Yes, we have seen it happen every time so I am sure itΒ΄s coming and possibly sooner than expected. Tomorrow important inflation data is being published. If that data is positive, which might be the case, we should see the rally continue.
Still, I remain mid-term bearish, just have a look at the annual Bitcoin Candles. You will see 2022 deep red.
We opened the year at 46K, had a yearly high of 47K, and a bottom of 28K and that is the current. situation.
If things play out as expected, that peak will not change. but we will close the year around 20K. That would be 27K below the annual opening and 8K below the low we had in 2021.
The candle would not be as big as in 2018, but in 2018 the red candle did not surpass the green candle from the previous year. That has never happened, but it looks a lot like what is going to happen in 2022 for the first time.
Does that worry me?
Not really, what I see is a shift.
While in 2013 and 2017, the rally was huge and the year prior to it did not rally so much. In 2020 the rally was huge and in 2021 not so much.Β
If you take that perspective and combine those 2 candles (2020+2021) and compare that to 2022, we see a pretty normal pattern. Bitcoin is in its puberty and might just be peaking a bit early this cycle.
Have a lovely day, remember that hitting the like button is one of the few free things in life, and hope to see you tomorrow.
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