Betting markets are suddenly very bullish on Kevin Hassett becoming the first Federal Reserve Chair formally nominated by Donald Trump in his second term.

As of this morning, traders on Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated prediction market have pushed the probability of Hassett getting the official nod before January 20, 2029, all the way to 48%, up sharply from low teens just days ago. That now makes him the clear frontrunner, ahead of names like Jerome Powell (whose re-nomination sits at ~22%) and Kevin Warsh, and Arthur Laffer.

Why Hassett?

The former CEA chairman (2017-2019) has been a loyal Trump economic adviser since the first campaign, co-authored the original 2016 tax cuts, and has spent the last year as a vocal surrogate on cable news defending Trump’s tariff plans and deregulation plans. He’s also publicly called for a more “rules-based” Fed that aligns better with White House growth goals — music to MAGA ears.

Unlike Powell (seen by some Trump allies as too hawkish) or academic heavyweights like Warsh, Hassett is viewed as reliably pro-growth and unlikely to fight the administration on rates if Trump wants them lower. Markets seem to be pricing in that loyalty premium.

Worth noting: this is specifically the market on the first formal nomination, not necessarily who ultimately gets confirmed. Trump could still float trial balloons or change his mind multiple times (he famously interviewed several candidates in 2017 before picking Powell).

Still, 48% is the highest any single name has reached so far in this cycle. If the rally continues, Wall Street will have to start taking the Hassett Fed very seriously.

Watch this space — and Kalshi — because right now the smart money is literally betting on Kevin.

"Kalshi traders now give Kevin Hassett 48% chance to be Trump’s first formal Fed Chair nominee (before 2029)  

That’s up huge in days and makes him the betting favorite over Powell & Warsh.  

A loyal tax-cut architect running the Fed? Markets are pricing it fast.