Spain is heading into a political gamble that could reshape the country’s government and alter the balance of power across southern Europe.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has called an early general election for 29 November 2026, bringing forward a vote that had been expected in 2027. The decision followed a damaging parliamentary defeat over housing measures and months of increasing difficulty for Sánchez’s minority government to secure stable support in Congress.
The election is no longer a possibility or a political rumor. It is official. The Spanish parliament has been dissolved by Royal Decree 806/2026, published in the official state gazette on 6 October. The campaign will formally begin on 13 November, while the election itself will take place on 29 November.
What makes this election particularly important is not simply the possibility of a change of government. Spain is one of the European Union’s largest economies, a major Mediterranean power and an increasingly influential voice in debates over migration, European defence, social policy and the future of the EU budget.
And this time, Sánchez is entering the campaign with a difficult question hanging over him: did he call the election because parliament had become impossible to manage, or because he believes a campaign centred on housing can rescue his political position?

The housing crisis changed everything

The immediate trigger was the defeat of two government housing decrees.
Spain has been experiencing intense pressure in its housing market. Rents have risen sharply in many areas, home ownership has become increasingly difficult for younger people and evictions have become politically explosive.
One particular case became a national symbol. The attempted eviction of an 87-year-old woman in Madrid, Maricarmen Abascal, triggered widespread public anger and helped turn housing from a long-term social problem into the defining political issue of the moment.
Sánchez’s government attempted to respond with measures including stronger protection for tenants, restrictions intended to curb speculation and temporary measures affecting evictions.
But the decrees were rejected in parliament.
That defeat was politically significant because Sánchez has governed for years without a conventional parliamentary majority. His survival has depended on complicated agreements with regional and nationalist parties, including Catalan party Junts.
When those negotiations stopped producing reliable votes, the government’s ability to legislate became increasingly uncertain.

Sánchez decided that voters should make the decision

On 5 October, Sánchez announced that he would dissolve parliament and call elections.
His speech was framed as a choice between two political directions.
He presented his government as a progressive alternative based on social protection, openness and environmental policies. He also warned voters about the possibility of a government involving the conservative Partido Popular and the right-wing Vox.
That language is important because it reveals the strategy behind the election.
Sánchez is not simply asking voters whether they approve of his government.
He is attempting to make the election a broader argument about whether Spain should remain under a progressive government or move toward the right.
In his announcement, Sánchez argued that voters must decide whether Spain wants to join what he described as a wider European “far-right wave” or continue along a different political path.
That is a campaign argument, not an objective forecast. The actual result will depend on turnout, regional voting patterns, coalition negotiations and the final distribution of parliamentary seats.

The government has already revived its housing programme

There is an unusual twist.
After the parliamentary defeat and the decision to call an election, Sánchez’s government approved revised housing decrees on 6 October.
The measures include rent-control provisions, temporary protection against evictions and restrictions affecting certain corporate purchases of residential property. The government argues that these measures are necessary to intervene in a housing market distorted by speculation. Critics warn that excessive intervention could discourage investment and reduce the supply of homes.
The timing is politically significant.
Sánchez can now campaign by saying that his government has a concrete housing programme.
The opposition can answer that the previous parliament rejected those policies and that the government no longer has the stable majority required to govern effectively.
That argument is likely to dominate the campaign.

The polls currently favour the right

At the moment, Sánchez is taking a significant electoral risk.
The polling picture is generally more favourable to the Partido Popular than to the PSOE.
A polling average published by RTVE on 5 October projected around 137 seats for the PP, 104 for the PSOE, 65 for Vox and about 10 for Sumar. A PP-Vox combination would therefore exceed the 176 seats required for an absolute majority in Congress.
Other polling aggregators also show the PP ahead of the PSOE and Vox considerably stronger than in 2023.
But this is where caution is essential.
Spain does not elect its government directly through a single nationwide vote. Seats are distributed through provincial constituencies, and regional parties can play a major role.
National percentages therefore do not automatically translate into government formation.
And Spain’s recent electoral history has already demonstrated that polling advantages can change during a campaign.

Vox could become the key to government

The biggest strategic problem for Sánchez is that the right does not necessarily need the PP to win an overwhelming majority.
It may only need the PP to become the largest party while Vox remains strong enough to provide the additional seats needed for government formation.
That possibility is central to Sánchez’s campaign strategy.
The PSOE wants voters to see the election not simply as a contest between Sánchez and PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo, but as a choice involving the possibility of a broader right-wing government.
The PP, meanwhile, is likely to argue that Spain needs political stability after years of minority government and complex agreements with regional parties.
Vox will attempt to strengthen its own position by focusing heavily on immigration, national sovereignty, security and what it describes as the failures of the Sánchez era.

The Catalan question remains in the background

Another major issue is Catalonia.
Sánchez’s governments have relied on support from Catalan parties, while his decision to support an amnesty for people involved in the Catalan independence crisis became one of the most controversial political decisions of his premiership.
Supporters argued that the policy helped reduce tensions and restore political normality.
Critics accused Sánchez of making excessive concessions to remain in power.
The housing defeat demonstrated the weakness of this parliamentary formula.
Junts, in particular, has shown that its support cannot be assumed.
The early election therefore also represents a possible attempt by Sánchez to obtain a clearer mandate and reduce his dependence on unpredictable parliamentary partners.

Sánchez and Meloni: the Italy factor

The Spanish election also deserves attention in Italy because the political relationship between Pedro Sánchez and Giorgia Meloni has become increasingly tense.
The disagreement is not new.
In October 2024, Sánchez openly criticised aspects of the Italian government's migration policy, including measures affecting migrants' access to mobile phone SIM cards. He used the issue to contrast the Spanish government's approach to integration with the Italian model.
The relationship became much more confrontational in 2026.
The biggest escalation came after the migration crisis in Ceuta.

Ceuta turned migration into a diplomatic dispute

In late July, Ceuta experienced an extraordinary influx of migrants arriving from Morocco.
Italy responded by temporarily reintroducing targeted border checks on travellers arriving from Spain, citing national-security concerns and the possibility of secondary movements of third-country nationals.
Spain then introduced controls on travellers arriving from Italy.
A migration emergency had therefore evolved into a diplomatic dispute between two EU countries operating inside the Schengen framework.
Sánchez responded publicly.
On 31 July he published figures that he attributed to Frontex, arguing that Italy had recorded substantially more irregular arrivals than Spain between 2021 and 2026.
His message was blunt: solidarity and empathy could be optional, but respect for European treaties and data could not.
This was one of the clearest recent examples of Sánchez directly challenging the Italian government's migration narrative.

The September exchange with Meloni

The political rivalry continued in September.
After Meloni highlighted the longevity of her government, Sánchez responded in a television interview by pointing out that his government had been in office for more than eight years and that he had seen several European prime ministers leave office during that period.
The remark, including his reference to “signora Meloni”, was interpreted in Italy as another political jab.
However, one detail needs correcting when the story is presented: Meloni has been prime minister since 2022, not for the longer period suggested by some versions of the exchange. Sánchez's broader comparison concerned the political longevity of his own government rather than a literal eight-year Meloni administration.
And there is another important nuance.
The Sánchez-Meloni relationship has not consisted exclusively of attacks.
In June, Sánchez actually expressed solidarity with Meloni after Donald Trump publicly attacked the Italian prime minister. Spanish government sources also described a conversation between Sánchez and Meloni on migration as cordial.
So the more accurate description is not a permanent personal feud, but a political rivalry that becomes particularly sharp on migration, European policy and the ideological contrast between their governments.

Why Italy matters beyond the political rhetoric

The relationship between Rome and Madrid is strategically important regardless of ideological differences.
Both countries depend heavily on the Mediterranean, share interests in agriculture, energy, migration management and EU cohesion policy, and have a common interest in shaping the next European budget.
Indeed, in June 2026, Meloni and Sánchez agreed on the importance of coordinating their positions on the EU's future budget and defending investment and cohesion policies.
This is an important reminder that political rivalry does not automatically eliminate institutional cooperation.
During an election campaign, however, the contrast between the two governments can become useful political material.
For Sánchez, Meloni represents one of the most visible examples of the European right.
For Meloni and the Italian right, Sánchez represents the opposite political model.
The Spanish election therefore has a European dimension.

What happens next

The official calendar is already underway.
The election will take place on 29 November. The formal campaign begins on 13 November and ends on 27 November, with the day before the vote reserved for reflection.
Between now and then, the main battles will probably revolve around housing, immigration, corruption allegations, the economy, public services and the possibility of a PP-Vox government.
Sánchez will attempt to turn the housing crisis into an argument for renewed progressive government.
Feijóo will argue that Spain needs a change after years of minority rule.
Vox will seek to ensure that the right cannot govern without its support.
The fragmented left will face another challenge: preventing progressive votes from being divided among several competing parties.

This is Sánchez's biggest political gamble

The Spanish prime minister has chosen a risky path.
He could have continued governing through the reduced parliamentary institutions and attempted to survive until the planned 2027 election.
Instead, he has decided that the current political deadlock is more dangerous than an early election.
That means he is effectively asking voters to resolve a problem that parliament could no longer resolve.
If the PSOE recovers during the campaign, Sánchez may later present the decision as an example of political courage.
If the PP and Vox obtain a parliamentary majority, however, the election will mark the end of Sánchez's current political era.
That uncertainty is precisely what makes 29 November so important.
Spain is not simply choosing between two political parties.
It is choosing whether to continue with a progressive government that has survived through complex parliamentary alliances or move toward a new conservative-led majority in which Vox could have a decisive role.
And because Spain is one of the EU's major countries, the consequences will not stop at Madrid.
The result will influence European migration policy, the political balance of the Mediterranean, the debate over the future of the European Union and, inevitably, the relationship between Madrid and Rome.
For Sánchez, the gamble has already begun.
Now the voters have the final word.

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