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ASML Crushed Earnings Expectations. So Why Did Its Stock Drop?

ASML Crushed Earnings Expectations. So Why Did Its Stock Drop?

On October 14, 2026, Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML published its financial results for Q3 2026 ( and yes, I know it's been a little while since this news came out, but I only just got around to covering this topic ). In general, ASML is one of the most important technology companies in the world ( and just to put things into perspective, without its equipment, it would be impossible to manufacture chips for Apple, NVIDIA, Intel, AMD, Samsung, and trust me, that list could go on for a very long time ). But let's get into the financial results.

Revenue increased by 55% to €11.66 billion year over year, while net income reached €4.96 billion ( more than twice as much as last year ). These financial results significantly exceeded Wall Street analysts' expectations.

A big part of this growth, obviously, comes from the artificial intelligence boom. But besides AI and sales of new lithography machines, the company also saw significant growth in its service segment, including maintenance and upgrades of machines already installed at customers' facilities.

ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet and CFO Roger Dassen officially stated that customer demand is expected to exceed the company's production capacity at least until 2028. Due to this strong demand and the potential for future production bottlenecks, the company is already exploring ways to expand production capacity for Low-NA EUV and DUV systems in 2028 beyond the previously planned +30%.

ASML itself expects another record-breaking quarter, with revenue projected to reach between €14.2 billion and €15.2 billion. The company also raised its full-year revenue forecast to €44-45 billion.

But the most interesting part here is that despite such a successful year for the company, ASML shares dropped by around 4% following the earnings announcement, while the US-listed shares fell by approximately 4-5% in total during the regular trading session and after-hours trading.

Analysts from BofA Securities and Bloomberg pointed to several reasons, noting that the company was trading at a very high valuation multiple ( P/E above 55 ). In other words, investors had already priced in very optimistic expectations for the stock.

Also, regarding the statement that demand will outpace supply until 2028, it's worth understanding that while having such massive demand and strong margins is obviously a good thing, it also means that ASML simply cannot sell more systems right now, even if customers want them. And based on that, the market is simply afraid that the company could hit a ceiling.

There are also a few other things worth keeping in mind.

One of them is Intel's deteriorating financial situation ( as it is a major customer for new High-NA EUV systems ), which could, in turn, have an impact on ASML's business. It's also worth mentioning that Intel isn't the only company taking such a cautious approach to capital spending. Another factor is export restrictions on shipments of advanced equipment to China.

This remains one of the ongoing risks to the company's long-term revenue growth.

But speaking personally, even though I don't claim to be the biggest brain in the financial world, ASML seems to me like one of the most interesting and promising companies on the planet. Essentially, it is a monopolist in its field and the only European tech giant that can stand on the same level as American companies like NVIDIA and Apple. That's why, personally, I was very pleased with these results, regardless of any temporary fluctuations in the stock price.

Thank you for taking the time to read this. Have a great day!

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werrmos
werrmos

financial analyst blogger and tech market commentator. medium: https://medium.com/@werrmos665


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