Will Bitcoin get back to $40k+ or crash down to $20k?

Will Bitcoin get back to $40k+ or crash down below $30k?

By Bfab | Good vibes | 25 Jan 2022

Bitcoin is bouncing up. Is it only a technical rebound after the fresh crash or a reversal head and shoulder pattern announcing a new rally?

Like most of you, I would like to believe in the second scenario. However, we may have entered a bear market. Let's look at what the experts say:

What we identified this week are significant realised losses, a steep drawdown, a return to HODLer led accumulation, and top buyers taking any opportunity to get their money back. If it looks like a bear, and walks like a bear, it could very well be a bear. But as with many things over the last two years...could this time different?

(Checkmate, Glassnode - Jan 24, 2022)

According to Glassnode, a useful tool is the Realised-to-Liveliness Ratio (RTLR) by Dor Shahar. This tool shows that the market is now trading below the RTLR price of $39.2k, but above the Realised price of $24.2k, which is "often observed during early to mid stage bear markets".

In summary, all the analyzed data lead to the conclusion that it could be the early stage of a bear market.

If we are in the early stage of a bear market, what price could Bitcoin reach?

As the Realised Price above is defined as a "Market Cost Basis", we can consider it as a strong support for Bitcoin in case of bear market. However, it is likely that Bitcoin will not go so low since major investors will start to buy it when it goes below $35k and will even more massively buy it if it eventually goes below $30k. The highest risk is to range for a few weeks at least between $30k and $40k.

What can you do to earn profits in this ranging scheme?

Swing trading will always work if you do it smartly and play with valuable coins having a good volatility. Among them, the following ones can be traded:

Relatively low volatility: BTC, ETH... and AMPL (to be bought every time it is below $1 and used in DeFi pools vs. other coins)
Higher volatility: AVAX, MATIC, AAVE, EGLD, SOL, XTZ, ATOM, LUNA, BNB, CRO...

As usual, nothing can be guaranteed. Swing trading means that you are surfing on the waves. Please DYOR to make sure you will not fall into the water.

Below a few links to earn more cryptos...