
The digital currency market has seen a sharp rise in recent days. Before Trump's speech,the US president, the price of bitcoin (BTC) rose to nearly 88,500, but after the announcement of new tariffs, a wave of sales in the market formed and prices fell.
For now, the attention of traders has shifted to the path of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Markets now expect the Fed to cut interest rates four times in 2025. The cuts, each of which will be 0.25 percent, are expected to take effect in June, July, September and December.
Lowering interest rates is usually in favor of risky assets such as bitcoin, because as the attractiveness of investing in bonds decreases, liquidity flows are directed towards other markets, including digital currencies.
However, some analysts, including analysts at Morgan Stanley, believe the Fed may not cut interest rates this year, as Trump's new tariffs could keep inflation high.
Some Federal Reserve officials have stressed that they do not see the need to cut interest rates. Philip Jefferson, the Federal Reserve's vice president, has said that we will not be in a hurry to change our policies until the US economy shows serious weakness and inflation decreases.
The increase in trade tariffs has also increased the risk of recession. Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, has revealed that the likelihood of a recession in the US has risen to 50 per cent. He warned that if tariffs persist, the US economy could enter a period of slowing growth in the next three months.
Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chairman, is scheduled to speak today after the release of the U.S. nonfarm employment report (NFP). His remarks could provide more insights into future monetary policy.
If today's NFP report reveals a weak labor market, the Fed may cut interest rates earlier than expected, which could benefit bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Otherwise, sales pressure on the market may begin again.