Considering that BTC is almost at ATH (All Time High), this means that in 15 years since its birth (almost) all the people who have invested in it are in profit. As of today, 1 BTC is worth 66k, the ATH is 72k. There are very few people at a loss, at least as things stand today. The same cannot be said for altcoins. BTC has always led the cryptocurrency rankings (market cap), just below it the altcoins have changed places, some have disappeared, others have scammed or lapsed into a long crisis.
Many people confuse trading with investing. They are very different things. Both strategies assume that the asset performs well, however with trading it is possible to make money even if the markets go down ("short"). You should understand the big difference:
1) Long-term investment 10-20 years (via DCA or more advanced strategies)
2) Long/short trading in the short term: minutes, hours, days, weeks, months (setting stop loss and take profit)
In addition to the time variable, "fundamentals" or the type of project are not important in trading. It is true, it is generally easier to trade a trending token (or short tokens that were trending in the bullish phase) but the trader is not interested in the project. He sees the graph. If he sees a good set-up he opens a "long" position, if he sees a "death cross" or other bearish signals he will open a "short" (even if it is the best asset of the last 15 years: BTC). Fundamentals have their long-term importance, in the short term effects such as inflation, burn, good tokenomics have no meaning. Theoretically it is also possible to trade a scam if I know that it will be spammed in the next few hours.
MICROCAP TRADING
This report from X user "099.eth" shows 30 tokens trending on DexScreener, how did they fare after 24 hours? Very bad because the algorithm is manipulated by fake volumes and paid advertising:
✅after 24 hours, the average return was -18%
✅<100k Market Cap: +8% with 80% of being rug pulled
✅100k-1M Market Cap: -30% with 41% of being rug pulled
✅1M-10M Market Cap: -30% with 33% of experiencing a rug pull
✅>10M Market Cap: -2% with no rug pull (it would be better to observe them for at least 72 hours)
Approximately 30% remained trending after 24 hours (decay is inversely proportional to Market Cap). 30% to suffer an 80% loss by holding for 24 hours, about 7% to make 2x, 3x. 60% paid (AD) to be advertised and performance recorded -50%. Only 11% who paid remained in trend after 24 hours (on average they lost 70% from ATH). This statistic demonstrates that even acting with microcaps is counterproductive because the risk of losing your funds is very high.
IS IT BETTER TO INVEST IN ALCOIN OR BTC?
I'm sorry to tell you but if your perspective is more than 3 years, statistics say that it is clearly better to invest in BTC or ETH than altcoins. This may be due to a series of reasons: bad tokenomics (unlocking of tokens), VC selling tokens bought at a low price, token inflation (many new projects have low circulating capital compared to the total supply therefore a huge FDV). Indeed, considering the top 250 altcoins by market cap, from 2022 to 2024, only 28% outperformed BTC. Around 38% outperformed ETH.
You should also consider that the famous "altseason" lasts only 1 month/max 2 months in a bull market which tends to be dominated by BTC for approximately 1,5 years. So when you reason by saying "I buy X because BTC is priced too high" you are wrong. Buying an altcoin in ATH or in any case after a 500% could prove fatal because most likely, in the future bullish cycle (speculative bubble) that token will never see a new ATH again. This depends mainly on changing narratives but also on mathematical reasons.
Assume a token with 400M market cap (price $4 and 100 million supply), if this token inflates in 4 years and finds itself with 400 million supply...with the same buy/sell (400M market cap) its price will no longer be $4 but $1. This is obviously a very simplified example but it is important to understand the concept. BTC has an inflation of around 1% per year, ETH in some circumstances (large use of the network) even becomes deflationary. So does it make sense to invest in altcoins? No, however they are a good way to accumulate more BTC (buy before a big speculative bubble and dump them).
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