Investment Disclaimer:
- I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
- Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
- This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.
1A. Top 3 Good News for BTC HODLERS !!!
- Senator Lummis Slams Hillary Clinton, Advocates For Stabilizing US Dollar Using Bitcoin
Statistic as of 2021-11-23 06:02 AM EDT: 50 positive votes, 2 negative votes
A Bitcoin-loving senator has responded to Hillary Clinton’s warning on cryptocurrencies, telling her to embrace it as a macroeconomic solution.
(Extracted from Crypto Panic) - Phunware Buys $24 Million Bitcoin
Statistic as of 2021-11-23 06:02 AM EDT: 41 positive votes, 0 negative vote
Phunware, an enterprise cloud platform for mobiles bought 398 bitcoin for approximately $23.8 million in cash at an average price of approximately $59,917 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses.
(Extracted from Crypto Panic) -
Institutional managers bought the dip as crypto funds see $154M in weekly inflows
Bullish sentiment surrounding crypto has not wavered despite the recent market correction that saw Bitcoin fall to sub-$57,000 levels.
Statistic as of 2021-11-23 06:02 AM EDT: 39 positive votes, 1 negative vote
(Extracted from Crypto Panic)
2. How Bitcoin Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?
As of 22 Nov 2021, Bitcoin has made a cumulative return of 785.0% since Jan 2020 and 191.88% since Jan 2021. It is currently the 16th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.
3. Technical Analysis on Bitcoin
3.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when BTC is closed at the end of every single day.
Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of BTC (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).
Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of BTC (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).
As of 22 Nov 2021, VWAP is suggesting that BTC is losing momentum.
3.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).
MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of BTC closing price from its 12-day EMA.
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26).
As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that BTC is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that BTC is losing momentum.
As of 22 Nov 2021, MACD is suggesting that BTC is losing momentum.
3.3. Bollinger Band
Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:
- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of BTC
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of BTC on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of BTC from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of BTC
Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that BTC is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that BTC is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity.
As of 22 Nov 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that BTC has been oversold.
3.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that BTC is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that BTC is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity.
As of 22 Nov 2021, RSI is suggesting that BTC is oversold across all trading windows.
Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge is bullish on BTC, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.
4. Bitcoin Risk Profile
Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Bitcoin defined above, BTC seems to trade at a higher risk level on 22 Nov 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 12 Nov 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at -11.72% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.
5. Price Simulation for Bitcoin
How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual BTC price movement over the last week ?
Over the last 7 days, BTC has been trading near the lower 25th percentile range of quantdoge simulations, indicating that BTC is oversold and undervalued.
6. BTC Community Analytics
Number of BTC Followers In The Past 24 Months
During the past 24 months, Bitcoin followers have grown 5,443.04 % from 68,544 to 3,799,422 on Twitter and grown 200.95 % from 1,193,574 to 3,592,086 on Reddit.
Monthly increment of Bitcoin Twitter followers peaked on Jun 2021 and its monthly increment of Reddit followers peaked on Feb 2021.
Number of BTC Followers In The Last 30 Days
In the last 30 days alone, Bitcoin followers have grown 8.66 % from 3,496,731 to 3,799,422 on Twitter and grown 3.46 % from 3,471,815 to 3,592,086 on Reddit.
Daily increment of Bitcoin Twitter followers peaked on 01 Nov 2021 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 10 Nov 2021.
7. Google Trends Analytics
Bitcoin reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-05-16 00:00:00 with a Google Score of 74
Over the last quarter, bitcoin Google Score has increased 17.17 % from 24.75 to 29.0
Over the last 6 months, bitcoin Google Score has decreased 16.55 % from 34.75 to 29.0
Based on Google searches, Bitcoin is most sought after in El Salvador, followed by Palau and Jersey this month.
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