Investment Disclaimer:
- I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
- Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
- This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.
1A. Top 3 Good News for AVAX HODLERS !!!
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Finance Redefined: Avalanche launches $200M fund, wXRP to debut on Ethereum Oct. 29–Nov. 5
Statistic as of 2021-11-08 09:31 AM EDT: 13 positive votes, 0 negative vote
Avalanche Foundation showcases a six-figure ecosystem fund, wXRP set to launch smart contracts on Ethereum, and AllianceBlock joins forces with Flare — all coming to you in this week’s Finance Redefined.
(Extracted from Crypto Panic) -
Four Altcoins Including Binance Coin and Avalanche Primed To Hit the Stratosphere, According to Popular Crypto Analyst
A widely followed crypto analyst and trader says epic rallies are on the horizon for Binance Coin (BNB), Avalanche (AVAX) and two more altcoins. Pseudonymous trader Smart Contracter tells his 178,800 Twitter followers that he believes BNB, the utility token of crypto exchange Binance, is in the midst of an uptrend that can push the […]
Statistic as of 2021-11-08 09:31 AM EDT: 22 positive votes, 0 negative vote
(Extracted from Crypto Panic) -
Grayscale Says It’s Exploring Terra and Avalanche
Statistic as of 2021-11-08 09:31 AM EDT: 11 positive votes, 0 negative vote
(Extracted from Crypto Panic)
1B. Top Bad News for AVAX HODLERS !!!
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Zabu Finance Exploited on Avalanche For $3.2M
Statistic as of 2021-11-08 09:32 AM EDT: 0 positive vote, 10 negative votes
Decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol Zabu has been exploited in what appears to be the first major hack in the Avalanche ecosystem.
(Extracted from Crypto Panic)
2. How Avalanche Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?
As of 07 Nov 2021, Avalanche has made a cumulative return of 1955.74% since Jan 2020 and 2614.44% since Jan 2021. It is currently the 4th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.
3. Technical Analysis on Avalanche
3.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when AVAX is closed at the end of every single day.
Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of AVAX (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).
Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of AVAX (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).
As of 07 Nov 2021, VWAP is suggesting that AVAX is gaining significant momentum.
3.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).
MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of AVAX closing price from its 12-day EMA.
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26).
As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that AVAX is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that AVAX is losing momentum.
As of 07 Nov 2021, MACD is suggesting that AVAX is gaining a significant amount of momentum.
3.3. Bollinger Band
Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:
- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of AVAX
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of AVAX on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of AVAX from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of AVAX
Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that AVAX is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that AVAX is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity.
As of 07 Nov 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that AVAX has been overbought.
3.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that AVAX is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that AVAX is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity.
As of 07 Nov 2021, RSI is suggesting that AVAX is neither overbought nor oversold.
Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge thinks that there is a fair chance for AVAX to revert to a lower price level, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.
4. Avalanche Risk Profile
Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Avalanche defined above, AVAX seems to trade at a lower risk level on 07 Nov 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 28 Oct 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at -22.41% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.
5. Price Simulation for Avalanche
How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual AVAX price movement over the last week ?
Over the last 7 days, AVAX has been trading above the median of quantdoge simulations, indicating that AVAX was overbought.
6. AVAX Community Analytics
Number of AVAX Followers In The Last 30 Days
In the last 30 days alone, Avalanche followers have grown 20.36 % from 15,097 to 18,171 on Reddit.
Daily increment of Avalanche Reddit followers peaked on 07 Nov 2021.
