On a weekly basis, we've left an imbalance on the downside, and this liquidity will be key, so we can't ignore it...
But the 50% Fibonacci level is just below, and that level can also attract the price.
This means the market could find liquidity in the imbalance and suddenly move to 118k-120k..,
...but at the same time, it could create traps that cause it to lose the imbalance and fall to 50%...
If the latter happens, then it would be advisable to wait for it to regain the imbalance again, to have greater confirmation...
because if it fails to regain the imbalance, then we could see the trend change we projected in July, at the beginning of the quarter.
Analysis as of July 1, 2025:
...On the upside, I'm only interested in last Thursday's high, to look for shorts... but only if the price decides to rise from now on without attacking the lower FVG-W.
In any case, we'll have to see how the price behaves at that specific moment, when it's above 118k, before making a decision.
In conclusion:
For now, I'll only be watching, on the downside, for longs, the FVG-W and the 50% Fibonacci...
...and on the upside, for shorts, last Thursday's high (with a possible breakout to the 0.25 Fibonacci level, but we'll have to wait for more data when the price is in that area).
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... *UPDATE: 9/21/2025 (23:00h NY)
The price has moved into the lower liquidity zone. These are the scenarios we should watch from now on.
And be very alert to the potential bearish scenario... in case we can't recover the imbalance and begin to develop a bearish structure on lower and medium time frames.
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... *UPDATE: 9/22/2025 (02:30h NY)
Critical zone for Bitcoin. It's necessary to respect the 50% Fibonacci level and recover the FVG-W on a 1-4 hour timeframe.
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... *UPDATE: 9/22/2025 (12:30h NY)
Today's daily close will be very important because we'll be able to get better confirmation of what the market really wants to do.
I wouldn't like to see a daily close below the FVG-W, as this would be a sign of weakness. Furthermore, this imbalance, by remaining at the top, will then begin to act as resistance.
It's possible to take advantage of short-term trades, using Daily Liquidity as an entry and/or exit point... but for that, we have to wait until the end of the day.
Remember the basis of our strategy:
- Buy below the open and sell above the open.
- Buy below previous lows and sell above previous highs.
- Buy below the 50% Fibonacci level and sell above the 50% Fibonacci level.
* This model is most effective if the move to Daily Liquidity occurs during Asia or London ✍️
* These two examples are just that... examples. We'll have to wait for the Daily Close before making a decision.
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... *UPDATE: 9/23/2025 (00:34h NY)
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... *UPDATE: 9/23/2025 (01:13h NY)
Activating BE 🔐
Taking Partial Profit ✅
Target 2 ✅
Closed operation completely ✅
My day ends here.
I hope you have a great day 🙏
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