BTC
Last week ended with an internal range, an accumulation range, which alerts us to prepare and adjust our risk in this scenario.
Previous analysis (pre-market)👇
BTC: Waiting for the Weekly Close.
That said, now I'm only interested in looking for confirmations in the external weekly liquidity (PWH - PWL).
The range we were trading within last week now has less impact, and although we can still use it as a reference in the very short term, it's necessary to understand that the liquidity below 60k that remained from the first week of February is still active.
The price still has the potential to drop to that level, so any decision during this new week must consider and adjust to that scenario.
I have four possible scenarios for this, and each will have its challenges due to the imminent increase in volatility that is expected:
Scenario 1:
Sweep to the Lower Weekly Liquidity (PWL) at 65118.
Here the risk is high, but a very short-term reaction can be capitalized on.
Scenario 2:
Take liquidity below 60k.
This is the most reliable scenario and the one that can offer the best risk/reward ratio.
Scenario 3:
Sweep to the Upper Weekly Liquidity at 72271.
This scenario will not be as easy to execute, so it will be advisable to wait for confirmation when the price is below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level again.
Scenario 4:
Break out strongly and accumulate above last week's high, looking for confirmation above 74500, which is last year's low. This could potentially take it to the monthly opening area.
In conclusion: This will be a week to avoid trading within the range and adjust risk due to the potential increase in volatility.
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UPDATE (08:50h NY)
I missed these data points in today's weekly analysis.
Please add them because they are important ✍️
72271 - PWH Futures
71453 - PWH Spot
68832 - Weekly Open (WO)***
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