BTC
May has just begun, and it will be important to take advantage of the first movements of the month, mainly at the key monthly and quarterly liquidity levels.
This month-end close for April has shown a predominantly bearish reading, because it took some liquidity in the FVG-M and experienced a rejection. Closing the month below the February CME gap, even.
For May, I continue to see the entire FVG-M zone along with the February CME Gap as the main reversal level that could send the price back up to 60k.
The optimal level for this trade is between 84300 and 87650. These represent the upper part of the CME Gap and the year open.
To reiterate: This is the optimal zone, but right now we cannot guarantee that the price will reach it, because the FVG-M is in the middle and represents very significant liquidity.
This means that to execute this trade, very rigorous risk management will be essential, as the reversal range for finding entries is quite wide.
That's why it's advisable to wait for reversal confirmations on shorter timeframes (4h - 1h - 15m).
For now, the invalidation zone for placing the stop loss will be above the weekly high of 90,600, because if the price reaches that level, there's a high probability of seeing an aggressive move that could take it to the quarterly high of 97,900.
In my opinion, we have a good opportunity to take advantage of this trade, because it has a fairly favorable risk/reward ratio for short positions and a clear zone to protect with the stop loss.
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