Bitcoin Price Evolution Analysis 12.17.2021

by CSM TRADER                                                                                                                

 Nº 484

BTC price U$ 47.060.  

USD/BRL price R$ 5.68.

Price EUR/BRL R$ 6.44.

Price Gold 1g R$ 329.04.

Good morning to all readers.

Short-term Bitcoin holders are taking significant losses.

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post , the BTC market is now looking at significant losses being realized. This trend may be reminiscent of the May 2021 crash.

The relevant indicator here is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which is a chain metric.

The SOPR measures the overall market profit ratio to see whether investors are, on average, in the profits or losses.

The indicator works by looking at the price at which each coin in the chain was bought and comparing it to the selling price.

When the SOPR value is above 1, it means coins during the period sold at a profit. On the other hand, values below 1 suggest that holders were selling at a loss.

Moreover, of course, when the indicator's value is exactly equal to 1, investors were on average stalling on the specific time scale.

This implies that these short-term holders have now begun to realize their losses as the Bitcoin price continues its negative corrections.

This trend may be similar to that seen after the May crash. And so, the currency may continue to oscillate sideways for a while, just as it did then before observing some uptrends.

Bitcoin price is still in a downtrend below the U$48,100 price area and the 100 EMA (H1).

The Bitcoin price in past sessions made a double top between the $49,480 and $49,440 price areas, and followed with its downward corrections below the $49,000, $48,000, and $47,500 price areas, even just now testing the $46,700 price area.

Now at the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is tracking in the U$46,930 price area.

The Bitcoin price would need to return with its positive developments upwards from the EMAs 5 and 20, roughly in the U$47,500 and U$47,880 price area; to try to invalidate the continued negative corrections downwards from U$46,500, where it still has strong support.

The breakout of support at $46,500 is on the agenda right now.

If the Bitcoin price were to break this $46,500 support, the downside corrections will go below $46,000 and $45,500, where it could still go below $45,120, for the next few sessions.

Only above the EMA 20 for the Bitcoin price to perhaps invalidate the continuities of the negative corrections down below U$ 46,500 and U$ 46,000.

A Journal close was made above the U$47,620 price area.

A close above the $46,000 price area would be important for today.

Buyers have totally lost control of the situation as they have failed to attempt positive moves above $49,500 and $50,000.

Now with sellers in control of the situation with the price of Bitcoin, the downside may follow below $46,500 and $46,000.

Sellers are looking for the last bottom formed in the U$ 46,500 price area, and with the break of it, they will go for the next bottom formed in the U$ 45,600 price area, and follow below U$ 45,000.

Only with the returns of the buyers' positive developments with Bitcoin's price up above U$47,500 and U$48,000, for the buyers to begin to regain control of the situation.

Major Resistance areas - U$47,300, U$47,800 and U$49,300.

Major Support areas - $46,500, $46,080 and $45,800.

H4 chart :

Bitcoin price remains below the EMAs and below the Ichimoku Cloud.

The price of Bitcoin has failed to stay above the Ichimoku Cloud and continues to make downward corrections below the $47,500 price area.

It will take negative corrections back above the Ichimoku Cloud's Base Line which is along with the EMA 5 for possible consolidations above it, and the possibilities of positive evolutions back above the $48,000 could arise.

The Ichimoku Cloud still shows the condition of positive advances above $47,500 and $48,000.

Only above the Base Line and with good consolidations above it, for the Bitcoin price to invalidate continued negative corrections below $46,500.

Buyers continue to do their best to keep the Bitcoin price above $47,000.

The chart in H4 will follow all week to have a parameter of the Bitcoin Price Evolution. Only some adjustments will be made.

Resistances: U$ 47,306 // U$ 47,759 // U$ 48,235 // U$ 48,656.

Supports: U$ 46,730 // U$ 46,210 // U$ 45,657 // U$ 42,214.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/T7iRgzF5/

H1 chart :

Bitcoin price is tracking below the EMAs and below the Ichimoku Cloud.

Bitcoin price needs to return positive advances above EMA 5 in the near term for further consolidations above it, and return attempts to stay above EMA 20 and follow positive advances above U$48,000 and U$48,500.

It will be necessary for the Bitcoin price to stay above $46,500 for attempts to form a new bottom above $46,700, where it is already underway for attempts to return to positive developments above $47,500 and $48,000.

If the Bitcoin price loses the bottom of $46,500, the downside corrections will move on to attempts and tests of breakouts in the price areas of $46,500 and $45,800, and may even extend these downside corrections below $45,120.

Only above the EMA 20 for the Bitcoin price to begin to break out of a risk area of continuing negative corrections below $46,500.

Follow the buyers in attempts to send the Bitcoin price above EMA 5 or even above U$47,300.

Resistances: U$ 47,288 // U$ 47,629 // U$ 47,899 // U$ 48,168.

Supports: U$ 46,800 // U$ 46,524 // U$ 46,209 // U$ 45,856.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/4GzbqZNS/

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Nº 484