Bitcoin Price Evolution Analysis 12.13.2021
by CSM TRADER
Nº 480
BTC price U$ 48.622.
Price USD/BRL R$ 5.61.
Price EUR/BRL R$ 6.32.
Price Gold 1g R$ 320.48.
Good morning to all readers.
Bitcoin miners avoid selling as their reserves peak in 2021.
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin miner reserve is growing as miners are accumulating BTC. Puell Multiple confirms that miners do not want to sell at the current price level.
As pointed out by a CryptoQuant post, the BTC miner reserve has been rising as miners seem to be waiting before selling.
There are two indicators of relevance here. The first is the " miner reserve," which is a metric that simply measures the amount of Bitcoin that miners are currently accumulating in their wallets. An upward trend in this indicator implies that miners are hoarding their coins rather than selling them.
Conversely, a downtrend suggests that miners may be getting rid of their Bitcoins.
The other indicator is the famous " Puell Multiple ," a metric that tells us how profitable miners would be compared to last year if they sold all their mined coins today.
The Puell Multiple value is calculated by taking the ratio between the daily value of coins issued and the 365-day moving average.
The current value of the Puell Multiple may mean that Bitcoin is undervalued at the moment. This trend may be bullish for the price of the currency.
Since the crisis about a week ago, Bitcoin has mainly consolidated, as the price of the currency seems to be stagnant. Currently, it is unclear when crypto can escape this rangebound market or which direction it will escape to.
The Bitcoin price is still in a downtrend below the U$49,200 price area and the 100 EMA (H1).
The Bitcoin price in past sessions had good positive moves upwards from the price areas of U$48,500, U$49,500. U$ 50,000, even testing the U$ 50,780 price area, and came back with its negative corrections down from the U$ 48,078 price areas just now.
Now at the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is tracking in the U$48,735 price area.
The Bitcoin price needs to hold above this latest bottom formed in the U$48,078 price area in order for it to return to attempts at the positive advances above U$49,000 and U$49,500 for the next few sessions, and still get back into consolidations above the EMA 100 (H1).
It will be necessary for the Bitcoin price to scale the Ichimoku Cloud (H1), but it looks like it will have to send a very strong bullish leg for such a feat. Ideally, it will follow inside the Ichimoku Cloud with laterality and follow with positive developments until above the 100 EMA (H1).
If the Bitcoin price fails to move above the EMA 100 (H1), the downside corrections will move below the last bottom formed in the $48,078 price area and still below the $48,000 and $47,500 price area; and may even go in search of the last bottom in the $46,700 price area.
Only above $48,000 and still with consolidations and positive evolutions above the EMA 100 (H1) or even above $49,200 for the Bitcoin price to leave a risk area of continued negative corrections below $48,000 and $47,780.
A Journal close was made above the U$50,050 price area.
For today, a close above the $49,500 price area would be important. Ideally, a close above the $50,000 price area would be important.
Buyers have lost control of the situation after failing to move positively above $51,000.
Sellers remain in control of the situation below the 100 EMA (H1), and want to continue the downside below $48,000.
It will be of utmost importance for buyers to keep the Bitcoin price above U$48,000, as below this price area sellers will gain more strength and follow with the downside below UI$47,500 and U$47,000.
Major areas of Resistance - $49,200, $49,880 and $50,220.
Major Support Areas - U$48,000, U$47,666 and U$47,000.
H4 chart :
Bitcoin price follows below the EMAs and below the Ichimoku Cloud.
The Bitcoin price needs to stay above the Lower BB Line (Bollinger Bands) in order not to go for the bottom formed in the $46,700 price area.
Only above the Base Line (red line) and above the EMAs 5 and 20 for the Bitcoin price to try to break out through the thinner part of the Ichimoku Cloud for the next few sessions and get back above the Ichimoku Cloud and go in search of the $50,000 price area again.
Buyers follow in their attempts to continue positive developments above the Ichimoku Cloud Base Line where they will still have to face the Conversion Line in order to make new consolidations above it.
The chart in H4 will follow the whole week to have a parameter of the Bitcoin Price Evolution. Only some adjustments will be made.
Resistances: U$ 49.172 // U$ 50.008 // U$ 50.730 // U$ 51.813.
Supports: U$ 48,368 // U$ 47,564 // U$ 46,646 // U$ 45,694.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/wMFaOEJh/
H1 chart :
Bitcoin price is tracking below the EMAs and inside the Ichimoku Cloud.
It will be important for the Bitcoin price to continue its consolidations within the Ichimoku Cloud until it breaks out above it again.
The Bitcoin price will have to get back above the 5 EMAs and wait for the 20 EMA so that new consolidations can be made above the 5 EMAs where positive moves above the 100 EMA can be made.
It will be of utmost importance that the price of Bitcoin remains above the $48,000 price area in the near term.
Follow the buyers in attempts to bar the sellers above the U$48,000, as below this price area, the sellers will with the Bitcoin price below the Ichimoku Cloud and further extend the downside below the U$47,500.
Resistances: U$48,795 // U$49,153 // U$49,348 // U$49,643.
Bearings: U$48,482 // U$48,149 // U$47,860 // U$47,547.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZO3rFr1r/
Dominance: 42.45 %
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Nº 480
