Background

Nearly 95% of everything I own is in crypto. (Yes, I know this is not recommended, but that's just how it is.)

I don't have any other income now.

When I need money, I sell chunks of my crypto portfolio.

II started buying Bitcoin in May 2017. Since then, I have just been watching the price go up and down. And down and up.

But I got older. I got wiser. I had finally learned.

No more hodling through the Bitcoin 4-year cycles.

I wanted to cash out a bigger buffer of fiat money so that I would not need to sell crypto when the bears are ruling the market.

And in the beginning of 2024, I found a plan. I cannot remember where I saw it - but it "clicked" in my head:
Best time to buy: 6 months before the Bitcoin halving.
Best time to sell: 18 months after the Bitcoin halving.

I did the math and found that Bitcoin would top out in October 2025.

The plan

Here is the post-it note with my plan drawn out in detail. I made it a digital image to keep on my private webpage - to be reminded and stick to the plan:

Simple and easy:

Sell a large portion of my Bitcoin in October 2025.
Buy back in the following bear market.
By doing this, I will increase my Bitcoin holdings by approximately 10-20%. Maybe even more.

October 2025

As expected, the price of Bitcoin was now high. Exactly as predicted!

But now - I got greedy...

I watched too much YouTube.

I read too many Bitcoin price predictions.

The "experts" talked about price targets for Bitcoin: 160k - 180k - 250k...

"The Bitcoin 4-year cycle is over"...

"This cycle will be extended"...

I became convinced that it would be stupid to sell now at 110-120k.

I only sold a fraction of what I had planned.

And then I waited...

...for the price to go down.

This is where I was planning to sell:

December 2025

I am still waiting.

I have hope that the cycle will be broken and Bitcoin will reach new heights in 2026.

The plan is to sell a large portion of my Bitcoin when the price goes back to around 100-110k.

Of course, I can sell now (and I need to sell a little anyway in order to cover expenses), but it does not feel good.

Let's see if I can stick to the plan this time..!