$1000...$20000...$50000?

3 years ago cryptocurrencies took all the covers of the world's main media, and Argentina was no exception. It is not for less, the reason is very specific: during 2017 the Bitcoin price rose 20 times. Bitcoin (BTC) started the year at $ 1,000 and came to touch almost $ 20,000.
But we are already in 2020 and the price of Bitcoin does not manage to pass the US $ 10,000. In this article I am interested in deepening on some data that could help understand reality, comparing the 2017 crypto market with today:

In 2017, there were only 5 million people with an open, verified account, with funds in the account and ready to operate on Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency purchase platform in the United States. Today that number grew to 30 million, and continues to accelerate daily.
In 2017 it was very cumbersome to buy the first cryptocurrency with national money. Banks made life very difficult for onramp companies that wanted to sell Bitcoin to those who paid with pesos. In addition, there were very few companies that did it, they were very recently created, which had no track record that aroused consumer confidence. At the end of the day, you had to trust the money to start-up companies and that generates logical resistance.
In 2020 there are already many companies, which are moderately well-known, in each country that allows "buying Bitcoin".

As for payment methods, in 2017 the options were extremely limited, perhaps you could make a bank transfer or informally with cash. In 2020 you can buy crypto with up to credit, debit, paypal and the most creative options invented are already available. There is always someone willing to sell you, at an appropriate price, adapting to the needs of cryptocurrency buyers.

In addition, in 2020 there are already at least 3 person-to-person platforms, when 3 years ago there was only one option, which had few sellers compared to today.

what will come...

Why is it important to consider all of the above? Because in times of irrational market fury, the number of people who can join "with the click of a button" or a tap on the cell phone and buy cryptocurrencies, is perhaps 10 times greater than what it was just 3 years ago.

It is inevitable to realize that it is easier, there are more people ready, and having more company options to choose from, makes competition adjust costs and transaction fees.

When nobody wants to be left out (it is known as FOMO retail), the real stampede occurs, a price run, reaching irrational prices, as has happened in the past, with the US $ 20,000 of 2017 having the most cool in memory. But it was not the only time that happened, previously there was an identical phenomenon of price runs, in the 11 years of Bitcoins' life.

When people join the plan "I don't want to be left out, I buy at any price" is where irrational prices are validated. Sure, conceptually for those who buy little volume, 0.001 or 0.0011 of Bitcoin gives you exactly the same. They just want to get in, "not stay out." With so much money available, it can be exponential and very fast.

The revolvers are ready, only without ammunition. But they can be loaded instantly, on a planetary scale.

A higher demand and less supply ...

Last Monday, May 11, the much-touted "Bitcoin halving" occurred where the supply of new Bitcoins was halved. Now there are only 900 new Bitcoins produced per day, versus 1,800 that were for 4 years.

Today more than 70 million people in the world have accounts open in a company where they can buy crypto, or that they have already bought, or that have their crypto wallet address already created. That 1% of the planet's population is a lot of people for FOMO anything.

When you start to raise the price to "interesting" values ​​such as hitting the all-time high of $ 20,000 again, they will easily remember that they had an account open at some cryptocurrency exchange. It is just to retrieve your keys, send some national money, and hit the BUY crypto button.

That can generate a potential demand shock, which becomes news because the price rose too much ... then those who were outside came. And since it is so easy and relatively quick to get on and start shopping (compared to 2017, the processes are much more oiled, the identity verification and KYC process is done more quickly and companies are more technologically prepared because their processes are ready, Even my mother may want to buy "a little bit of crypto."

what could happen then ..

Ese escenario que describimos antes no se materializará mañana, pero las condiciones están dadas. En conversaciones informales con otros inversores crypto, nadie espera que Bitcoin valga menos de u$s50.000 a fines de 2021, pero podemos estar todos equivocados.

Lo que es seguro, es que independientemente del precio, la revolución del Bitcoin y las cripto llegó para quedarse. Y su adopción está ganando momentum. Es más fácil aventurar lo que sucederá en 5 años con respecto al uso y adopción de criptomonedas en la vida cotidiana. En cuanto al precio, eso ya es mucho más difícil de pronosticar.