The Chinese New Year (CNY) historically corresponds with a dump in crypto. US tax season comes right after. This year is a bit different because of the Plague, however, so the question is will CNY and Uncle Sam make the market bleed in 2021?
CNY corresponds with a lot of traveling in the East's biggest market. Where do folks get that money to travel? Crypto! This is usually a week-long trip at least, and it isn't all retail. Chinese investors dump, too, and go party with hookers and booze.
But COVID is keeping people in the house this year. The Chinese government is cracking down on its own citizens in a major way, and nobody is moving. And this year, American investors are actually believers in crypto. All major dips have been bought up incredibly quickly. There is no reason to believe that BTC gobble monsters like Greyscale won't immediately grab up any bitcoin that China dumps. If bitcoin holds, the market holds. Maybe altcoins will have a tough time, but it won't be a huge, bull-market killing dump.
You also have to believe that politics may play a role. The competition between US and China may not allow Chinese investors to dump crypto this year. You might end up with people missing like Jack Ma if America starts to outpace China in bitcoin accumulation.
As for tax season, there may be some legitimate FUD here.
Tax season 2021 is the first tax season that the party pooper government fags are taking crypto seriously. The IRS now has a question on PAGE ONE of tax forms asking about digital assets. Page one? Are you that broke? (Don't answer that. We know you are.) But the US is actively trying to scare its citizens out of crypto back into its shit fiat, so you may see some of the more normie loser American shitbags capitulate.
But the institutions won't, I believe. This dump is when they get truly rich and cement their grip over crypto (read: the "people" lose in 2021).
I think the IRS will delay the entry of American retail into the market. But that spillover will come. The free gifts are coming. Tax refunds, PPP and EIDL money, unemployment checks with federal stimulus, student loan and rent moratorium extensions, and possibly a federal minimum wage. Americans are going to get a lot of government handouts this year, and you can bet those handouts are going straight into shitcoins after a pit stop through bitcoin, ether and maybe LINK and DOT.
As a result of the more fools with more money theory, I am insanely bullish on crypto post-April.
So in short, any excuse for a dump probably leads to a dump. Why? The fear of the dump is enough for a dump. How bad will the dump be? I think you have to look at the weeks before to see that.
So we just had a dump down to BTC $30k on Janet Yellen and double spend FUD. It got eaten right back up, and everything is bullish again. If we get back to ATH levels by CNY, I'd look for no more than sideways movement. The market is telling us that it's already priced in a dump, and it wants to buy up because the overall trend is still bullish.
In this scenario, I really don't do anything except buy with spare stablecoins if I can. Under no conditions do I sell an overall bullish market for a bearish week or two. Especially a CNY that will not involve nearly as much travel as other years.
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