I've noticed a pattern. Lately, I keep seeing it in chats: "I'll buy BTC only at 40K, not before." It sounds reasonable, cautious, and level-headed. But in reality, it's a classic case of price anchoring. The brain latches onto a nice, round number and refuses to think any further.
The right question is different. It's not "at what price to buy," but rather "what is the current risk level of the asset."
Take a look at the chart above. It’s the Bitcoin Cycle Ω-Score — an indicator that colors each price point based on its risk level. From low (blue) to high (red). It doesn't calculate just one metric, but a whole range of cyclical data simultaneously.
And what do we see right now? Bitcoin is trading around $65,000. According to this indicator, that's the 10% risk zone. Historically, this is very close to the cycle bottom. The model shows the zero-risk level around $41K.
And now for the best part.
The difference between buying at 10% risk and the theoretical zero level is a drawdown of about minus 35%. That sounds like a lot. But on the scale of a cycle, where we've seen highs of $126K and target levels are far above that, this is statistical noise.
However, the difference between "I started buying in the low-risk zone" and "I sat out the entire cycle waiting for 40K, which never came" — that is not noise. That's missing the entire cycle. It's a psychological meat grinder in its purest form, because these same people end up chasing the market at the very top.
The cycle will sort everything out. But it won't wait for you to get your pretty price tag.
What to do about it in practice. Stop looking at price as an end in itself. Look at the risk level. Historically, buying in the blue zone has yielded very good results — even if you didn't buy at the absolute bottom.
This is the essence of the Munger rule: enter where the math is on your side, not where a pretty number strokes your ego.
Only those who later brag about it after the fact catch the bottom. Everyone else either buys in the low-risk zone or simply misses the cycle entirely.
