A short report so you understand how I’m living through this bear market and why I’m not panicking.

As of today, I am 53% invested in the market. That means just over half of my capital is already deployed. The rest is in cash and short-term bonds, which are quietly generating a small cash flow (around 4% per annum). Nothing heroic, but it’s pleasant: the money is working while I wait.

And here is what I’m waiting for.

I assess the current rebound from $58k to $63k as NOT a reversal. It’s a breather. The market exhaled, short-sellers covered, ETF traders quieted down. It’s possible that July will drift a little higher — I wouldn’t be surprised. But based on the logic of the cycle, the bear market isn’t over yet.

MY SWEET SPOT FOR BUYING THE DIP — the $48–53k zone.

That’s exactly where I plan to deploy the bulk of my remaining cash. Why this zone:
— $53k — a strong technical level (Realized Price)
— $48k — the area of CVDD, a level where price has historically arrived at the end of bear cycles
— Between them — that very “meat grinder” where most people give up, while systematic players scoop up the pieces.

Now, the most interesting part.

8% of my deposit I am DELIBERATELY leaving for a black-swan scenario. For something that has never happened before: a breakdown below CVDD, a crash to $30k, the apocalypse that every other chat group is screaming about.

The probability is low, but if it does happen — and it would be a systemic macro-level failure, something on the scale of 2008 — I will have the ammunition to act, not to bite my elbows in regret.

If the black swan doesn’t arrive and the market reverses as I expect, closer to autumn — I will deploy that 8% ON CONFIRMATION of the reversal. My first trigger is a break above the weekly MA50 on volume. Not “it seems to me,” but a clear signal.

That’s the entire math.

No “buying the absolute bottom,” no “selling the exact top.” Just zones, levels, scenarios, and a pre-written plan. The cycle will sort everything out — I’m simply not getting in its way.

This is exactly what I teach in the Academy. Not guessing, but acting according to a system.