Over the long haul, the market favors simple things.
One of them is Bitcoin's 100-week simple moving average.

Looking at history without emotion reveals a rather neat picture:

— Zones below the 100w SMA have almost always coincided with phases of deep capitulation;
— The reclaim and consolidation above this line occurred only after a bottom had formed;
— After the reclaim, the market entered a medium-term growth phase.

There are two distinct approaches, and it's important not to confuse them.

The first is aggressive.
Buying below the 100w SMA. This is a strategy for those willing to act against fear, news, and the general sentiment. Historically, it has provided maximum returns, but not everyone can withstand it psychologically.

👉 We are in this zone right now.

The second is more conservative.
Buying after the price reclaims above the 100w SMA. Here, you sacrifice a portion of the potential return but gain confirmation that the market has exited the destruction phase. Importantly: throughout history, Bitcoin has never fallen below the previous cycle's 100w SMA level after such a reclaim.

This is not a "holy grail" or a guarantee.
It is merely a risk filter and a way to remove emotion from decisions.

For me, this model is not a signal, but a guidepost. It helps avoid fussing, trying to catch falling knives, or demanding from the market what it is not obliged to provide. Everyone chooses an entry point that matches their psyche and time horizon.

What does this mean?
If a bottom has already formed, the market will show it in time. If not, waiting for confirmation protects from unnecessary mistakes. The price for this protection is missing the initial impulse.

I'm not rushing to conclusions. I'm observing, comparing, and leaving room for scenarios.

If you'd like, I can separately break down:
— how this model performed in each cycle
— where it fails
— and how to combine it with other macro indicators

Let me know with a reaction and write which breakdown format would be more useful.

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