Clem Chambers, CEO of ADVFN, wrote that if there is a war with Iran then Bitcoin will ‘moon’ because “war in the Middle East” has always made markets move. The recent US airstrike on Iran which killed its top general is an event where you can definitely point to the change in the Bitcoin price and say, “that’s what did it.” The story was picked up by mainstream media, see Forbes news article here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2020/01/03/bitcoin-war-iran/#1b99920c343b
Could this be true?
Will bitcoin price sky rocket due to ongoing US sabre rattling and its foreign drone activities. The belief that US military invasions and drone assassinations are correlated to moves in cryptocurrency (bitcoin and altcoins) seems tenuous at best.
Let's keep an open mind and review the evidence by taking a look at a “highlight” shortlist (by no means exhaustive) of some geopolitical events since bitcoin emerged in 2011 and correlating any moves in bitcoin price change.
- May 2011 Osama Bin Laden is killed by U.S. military forces in Pakistan as part of Operation Neptune Spear.
- September 2011 USA drone strike kills US citizen Anwar Al-Awlakiin Yeman
- 2012 USA deploys troops to Chad to extract US citizens and embassy personnel from Bangui, CAR
- March 2013 USA responds to Korea Crisis
- Sept 2013 USA drone assignation of Sangeen Zadran (Taliban leader)
- Feb 2014 invasion of Ukraine by Russia
- July 2014 invasion of Gaza by Israel
- 2014 USA intervention in Syria (Operation Inherent Resolve)
- July 2014: USA in Syria to rescue James Foley and other hostages
- 2014-present American intervention in Iraq
- 2015 Saudi led Arab coalition invasion of Yemen
- June 2015 USA drone assassination of Ali Awni Harzi (Islamic State)
- Nov 2015 USA drone assassination of ‘Jihadi John’ Mohammed Emwazi (Islamic State)
- Aug 2016 invasion of Syria by Turkey to confront Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Syria)
- Nov 2016 USA drone assassination of Faruq Qatani (Al Qaeda)
- Dec 2017 invasion of the Gambia by Senegal, Nigeria and Ghana
- June 2017 USA drones kill 27 Shabaab terrorists in northern Somalia
- April 2018 UAE invasion of Socotra, Yemen
- Aug 2018 USA drone strike kills Abdu Saad Erhabi (IS Chief), along with his nine commanders
- 2019 USA Operation Sentinel USA presence for Middle East waterway security
- Jan 2020 USA Drone strike killing Iranian general Qassem Soleimani
Looking at some high profile USA drone assassinations over time shows no correlation to bitcoin price "mooning".
While it seems on the surface intuitively that geopolitical uncertainty will cause a flight of capital from fiat to gold, silver and cryptocurrencies. However, there is no supporting evidence that ongoing drone assassinations from the USA (and the many authorized successes on their kill list) appear to be a major catalyst for bitcoin price movements. Moreover, the 542 drone strikes that Obama authorized killed an estimated 3,797 people, including 324 civilians. Drone assignations under the current administration continue unabated. All which are not tied to bitcoin price action.
The US administration argues that its kill list and Drone strikes make the United States safer by decimating terrorist networks across the world. Drone attacks in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Yemen, and Somalia have killed upwards of 3,500 militants, including dozens of high-level commanders implicated in organizing plots against the United States. Again, none of these terrorist assassinations by the US drone program with the specter of another USA invasion appears to have in any way affected the price movement of bitcoin in the past.
There is enough fear, uncertainty and doubt in the world without so called "experts" perpetuating nonsense.
