The $500,000 price level for Bitcoin is a scenario frequently cited by the most optimistic voices in the market. In recent weeks, however, a different question has emerged: If the rapid growth in artificial intelligence (AI) investments has turned into a bubble—and that bubble were to burst—how would Bitcoin be affected?

Toward the end of October (October 22), the Nasdaq Composite fell by 2.6%, while the S&P 500 declined by approximately 1.2%. This downturn was driven by concerns regarding the sustainability of AI investments. At the heart of the debate lies a key question: Will the massive expenditures on data centers and energy infrastructure generate enough revenue to justify these investments?
For Bitcoin, two primary risks stand out in the short term:
Liquidity needs: Investors who incur losses on other assets may reduce their crypto holdings when they need to raise cash.
Leverage liquidations: During sharp market declines, the closing of leveraged positions can amplify selling pressure.
The fact that Bitcoin has recently moved in tandem with technology stocks makes this correlation increasingly apparent.
The mixed earnings reports from Tesla and Meta on October 22 reignited skepticism surrounding AI-related spending, and Bitcoin saw a decline on the same day.
Jeff Anderson of STS Digital notes that Bitcoin remains closely tethered to tech stocks, with the market currently pressured by concerns over AI valuations and debt levels.
On the institutional demand front, the picture remains volatile; spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States saw fluctuating inflows and outflows throughout October. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, views the situation from a different perspective. According to Hayes, artificial intelligence (AI) companies have absorbed a significant portion of capital that might otherwise have flowed into crypto, financing their growth through high levels of debt. Furthermore, the loans used to finance graphics processing units (GPUs) are backed by assets that risk losing value as newer generations of chips are released.
Hayes acknowledges that if this structure begins to unravel, Bitcoin could suffer in the initial phase. However, he argues that in the event of a sufficiently deep crisis, governments and central banks would likely intervene with stimulus packages, potentially triggering a new wave of liquidity. In short: a decline first, followed by a rise.
In an article published in August, Hayes characterized the AI ​​boom not as a story of earnings—reminiscent of the year 2000—but rather as a story of credit, akin to the 2008 financial crisis.

While discussions persist regarding scenarios in which the bursting of an AI bubble could impact the broader markets, there are still institutions and individuals who—despite these concerns—project six-figure or even higher price targets for Bitcoin:
Standard Chartered: The firm adjusted its $500,000 target for December 2025, pushing the timeline to between 2028 and 2030, and conceded that its previous short-term forecasts were incorrect. In February 2026, it revised its year-end 2026 target to $100,000—warning of a potential sharper decline beforehand—while maintaining its $500,000 target for 2030. The core of this forecast hinges on demand driven by ETFs. In its "Big Ideas 2026" report, ARK Invest presented three scenarios for 2030: $300,000 in a bearish (pessimistic) scenario, $710,000 in a base-case scenario, and $1.5 million in a bullish (optimistic) scenario.
Tom Lee (Fundstrat) suggests that if Bitcoin were to reach a market size comparable to gold in the long term, its price could hit the $2 million mark.
Note: All these figures are merely scenarios. As seen in the case of Standard Chartered, such targets can be revised based on changing market conditions.

The ongoing debate surrounding an "AI bubble" serves as a reminder that the crypto market is not insulated from global risk appetite. A $500,000 price scenario depends on both long-term adoption and macroeconomic conditions.
Some argue that a potential collapse in the AI ​​sector could delay this trajectory, while others believe it might indirectly pave the way for it. Regardless of the source, price forecasts inherently involve a high degree of uncertainty. It should be kept in mind that crypto assets are highly volatile; therefore, any investment decisions should be made based on one’s own risk profile and after gathering information from reliable sources.