As crypto assets sit at the outermost edge of the risk spectrum, they have continued their downward trend over the past week. Although Trump’s recent remarks have fostered a more positive sentiment, a definitive reversal from the lows has yet to be confirmed. For such a reversal to occur, we need to see a shift in market structure—specifically the formation of higher lows—supported by an increase in trading volume. Otherwise, the $200 billion support level—which aligns with the annual opening price for the altcoin market capitalization—remains a key level that has yet to be tested. To get a clearer picture, let’s delve into a few specific altcoins.

The first subject of this analysis is AAVE, a pioneering project within the DeFi ecosystem. Security vulnerabilities experienced in recent months—such as the creation and borrowing of "fake" Ethereum—have since been resolved and left behind. The project continues to safeguard an ecosystem with $16.4 billion in total value locked (TVL), against a market capitalization of $2 billion. Furthermore, a monthly revenue exceeding $5 million points to a sustainable, profit-generating business model. On the flip side, however, the fact that only about 16% of its market cap is staked suggests that investors may not necessarily hold a long-term outlook on the project. Turning to the price action of this complex yet high-cap project, the loss of the annual opening level ($148) triggered increased selling pressure, pushing the price down to a significant support zone. While this support has been reclaimed for the moment, we cannot speak of a truly positive structure until the annual opening level is regained. In the event of further downward movement, the strongest support lies at the annual volume-weighted average price (VWAP). It is difficult to speak of a positive structure without reclaiming the annual opening level of 148 USDT. Selling pressure pushed the price down to the 126 USDT support level, which was subsequently reclaimed. In the event of further downward movement, the strongest support lies at the annual volume-weighted average price (VWAP), located around 111 USDT.

The next project I have selected is WLD. With a market capitalization of $1.43 billion, approximately 37% of its total supply is currently in circulation, and further supply releases are expected. The reported profit for the third quarter stands at $53,000; while this represents an 11% increase over the previous quarter, it remains a very small figure relative to the project's market capitalization. In short, despite its high level of recognition, WLD has yet to generate a consistent and robust revenue stream. From a technical perspective, there are several critical levels to consider. The price has failed to break through the volume-weighted average price band—represented by a dynamic blue line—on four separate attempts, and this zone is acting as a clear resistance level. Furthermore, the price remains under pressure below its annual opening level. This setup suggests the possibility of a liquidity test in the short-to-medium term, followed by a potential gradual recovery. The 0.58 USDT level—which coincides with the aforementioned dynamic blue VWAP band—serves as a distinct resistance that the price has been unable to overcome in four attempts. For the price to retest this zone, it must first break above the 0.44 USDT level. With the price currently suppressed below its annual opening level of 0.48 USDT, the short-to-medium-term scenario involves testing the liquidity in the 0.35 USDT zone, followed by a move to revisit the 0.48 level and subsequently the 0.58 level.

Political uncertainty has subsided, and prices have shown an initial reaction; however, confirming a reversal from the lows requires the formation of higher lows accompanied by increasing trading volume. Non-farm payroll data could serve as a second key factor in determining the direction. While the resolution of security concerns for AAVE provides a positive backdrop, the price still needs to reclaim its annual opening level. As for WLD, its high profile has yet to translate into revenue, and the resistance levels remain clear. The takeaway for this week—quiet yet distinct—is that it is too early to celebrate the relief; now is the time to keep a close watch on key levels.