December inflation data, released on January 13th, was in line with expectations. The CPI rose 2.7% annually and 0.3% monthly. Core inflation remained stable at 2.6% annually, but was below expectations at 0.2% monthly. Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target and is sticky, with interest rate cuts expected. On January 17th, Trump announced he would impose a 10% tariff on eight European countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland) that opposed the sale of Greenland to the US, effective February 1st. The tariff rate will increase to 25% on June 1st and will remain in place until Greenland is purchased. Trump stated, "These tariffs will remain in place until an agreement is reached to buy Greenland. The US has been trying to buy Greenland for over 150 years." European leaders reacted negatively. Macron called it "unacceptable," while Starmer stated that "imposing tariffs on NATO allies is completely wrong." The risk of serious cracks in the NATO alliance, a new wave of tensions in transatlantic trade, and increasing global geopolitical uncertainty are rising.

Critical data is coming from Japan on Friday. Market expectations are for interest rates to remain unchanged at 0.75%. However, an unexpected rate hike risks unwinding carry trade positions and high volatility in global markets. Sudden movements in the yen directly affect global risk appetite due to carry trade; an unexpected rate hike could have a seismic effect.

In the US housing market, the number of sellers is 1,854,870, while the number of buyers is only 1,425,100. This difference of approximately 430,000 indicates a significant oversupply in the market. Normally, an oversupply of sellers should drive prices down, but because mortgage rates are around 7%, buyers cannot enter the market. Sellers are unwilling to lower prices, and buyers cannot afford these prices with high interest rates. Result: prices are artificially kept high while transaction volume collapses. There is a bottleneck in the real estate sector; high interest rates have both killed buyers and frozen sales, and this deadlock will not be resolved without a Fed interest rate cut.

The US's 28-point peace plan for the Russia-Ukraine war is on the table, but there is no agreement on territory, status, and security guarantees. The war reached 1,418 days on January 13th, equaling the duration of Russia's war in World War II. Peace may not be finalized until the summer of 2026 at the earliest; the risk remains.

Protests continue in Iran, and the Trump administration has signaled intervention. While Israel maintains a military presence in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, tensions are escalating in the West Bank. Oil prices and energy supply security are at risk.

On January 14th, gold tested a new all-time high of $4,641 per ounce. Geopolitical risks, concerns about the Fed's independence, and US inflation data coming in line with expectations supported gold. Citigroup predicted that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce by March. Given the continued macroeconomic risks (high interest rates and sticky inflation) and the increasing geopolitical tensions, we can expect gold to continue its upward trend. Technically, a short-term accumulation between 4,550 and 4,625 appears healthy. Gold is breaking records due to safe-haven demand; the trend remains unbroken.

On January 14th, silver reached its all-time high of $91.55, surpassing the $90 threshold for the first time. It has risen by 28% since the beginning of the year and by 199% in the last year. Supply shortages, industrial demand (solar panels, EVs, 5G), and safe-haven buying have caused silver to "change phases." $100 is now a psychological level, more than just a technical one. Turning to technical data, a pullback to $84.50 can be expected in the short term. However, we will see together whether macroeconomic conditions will support this technical data. The level we need to watch for resistance this week is $92.65. If we see closures above $92.65, room could open up to $97 and $101. Silver is catching up with gold through a "catch-up trade," approaching three-digit prices.

Copper tested a new record high of $6.15 on January 14th. Uncertainty surrounding US tariffs, aggressive buying by speculators, and supply disruptions in South America pushed prices higher. However, Trump's decision to abandon tariffs on critical minerals and high-frequency trading pressure from China caused copper to fall back to $5.85. Last week, I stated that the 5.93 (0.5) level is a critical pivot in the short term; below this level, the 5.81-5.71 support levels should be watched, and above, the 6.00-6.13 resistance zone. All levels were tested in turn; congratulations to those who traded. This week, a rise up to 6.03 could be healthy technically. The short-term pivot level is still 5.93. A close above this level could lead to continued upward movement. However, a close below 5.93 could increase selling pressure. In the medium to long term, the copper rally is largely over, and correction pressure is increasing.

Brent crude fell 4.31% on January 15th to $63.66. Trump's signal of delaying military intervention in Iran rapidly eroded the geopolitical risk premium. 2026 forecasts: Brent around $56 average, WTI around $49. Expectations of oversupply, OPEC+'s market share strategy, and the scenario that the US will not intervene unless prices fall below $50 are putting downward pressure on prices. There is structural pressure on oil; 2026 will be a year of oversupply, and prices are likely to remain low.

The week of January 12-18 saw continued "record-breaking frenzy" in US markets, but the pace was tested. After reaching a new all-time high of 6,986 on January 12th, the S&P 500 consolidated around 6,940 throughout the week. The Nasdaq remained relatively calm at 23,525. Inflation data coming in line with expectations and the Fed's cautious stance on interest rates stabilized the market, but discussions about an "AI bubble" and Trump's tariff signals led to short-term fluctuations. Risk appetite remains, but indices are waiting for the next catalyst—earnings season is critical.

The week of January 12-18 saw the first serious test in US markets after the "record frenzy." After hitting a new all-time high of 6,977 on January 12, the S&P 500 consolidated throughout the week and closed at 6,940. The Nasdaq finished the week at 25,524, remaining above the rising trend support of the 111SMA (25,131).

Looking at the S&P 500's technical data in detail, bulls are losing momentum as they test the rising trend support from April 2025. If we don't see a close above 6,985, selling pressure may increase. Below are critical support levels: 6.829 (SMA50), 6.711 (SMA111). A break below these moving averages could indicate deepening selling pressure. Earnings season is crucial; will it continue chasing records, or is a correction and consolidation beginning?

$GOOGL maintains its weekly uptrend. Q4 2025 earnings will be released on Tuesday, February 4, 2026 (after market close). Analysts expect $2.59 EPS (20.5% year-on-year growth). It exceeded $102 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time in Q3, notable for Google Cloud's 33.5% growth.

$JNJ will release its Q4 2025 earnings on Wednesday, January 21, 2026 (before market open). Analysts expect $2.53 EPS (24% year-on-year growth). The $200 pivot level remains important; the risk of a short-term pullback is still on the table.

$LMT is performing strongly due to the rising geopolitical risk premium. Q4 2025 earnings will be released on Thursday, January 29, 2026 (before market open). It gained strong momentum in Q3 with a record order portfolio of $179 billion and $30 billion in new contracts (PAC-3, CH-53K). All three companies will release their earnings in the next two weeks, making this season critical for the index's direction.

Bit has risen 5% in the last week, reaching 95K, and the inflows from Spot ETFs supporting this rise are quite positive. Bitcoin Spot ETFs saw inflows of over $1.4 billion last week (IBIT completed its last four trading days with inflows). The continued inflows, led by BlackRock, are positive for the short-term trend. However, the lack of outflows in IBIT, despite the last trading day, is only a limited positive. The Coinbase Premium Index continues to be a leading indicator. A positive signal came from the Coinbase Premium Index at the start of the week. Investor sentiment in the US is about to turn positive. The Coinbase Premium Index is still negative, but bulls are gaining strength while bears are losing ground.

Key levels to watch for Bitcoin this week are:

98K —> Short-Term Investment Cost (STH RP)
98K —> 111DMA
90K —> SMA50
90K —> Max Pain
81K —> TMT (true market mean)

Bitcoin closing above 98K is positive; closing below 90K and 81K should be monitored respectively. Bitcoin has had a positive skew since August 24, 2025. This means put options are expensive and the market fears a decline, a bearish indicator. However, since the last week of November, the positive skew has been losing momentum and has currently fallen to 4.59 points. The bearish signal has weakened but still persists—the market is not yet fully relaxed.

What caught my attention when looking at the tokenized assets on the Ondo Finance network was the presence of giant companies like Vanguard ETF, Exxon Mobil, Citigroup, Caterpillar, and Verizon on the blockchain. A total of 13 Fortune 500 companies have been tokenized, and these companies are from the energy, finance, industry, and technology sectors. The SEC has given the green light to RWA tokenization in 2025, and regulation is clear in MiCA Europe. The influx of institutional investors has begun. Ondo Finance is one of the rare projects that brings real-world assets to the blockchain, and it has the potential to generate real value.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.