We are entering the second week of 2026 in an environment where macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments are being priced in together. While employment and labor market data from the US reinforce signals of an economic slowdown, rising geopolitical risks are bringing the demand for safe havens back to the forefront. We are simultaneously observing the impact of these conflicting signals on equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. One of the most notable developments of the week was the US operation against Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. This development increased the perception of geopolitical risk in global markets and accelerated the shift towards safe havens. Unexpected geopolitical moves reduce risk appetite and rapidly change correlations between assets.
Non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000, below expectations (60,000). The slowdown in new hires indicates a soft but clear slowdown in economic activity. Unemployment data came in only 0.1 percentage points below expectations, which had little impact. A weak NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) figure strengthens expectations of interest rate cuts and could put pressure on the dollar. Markets are focused on the upcoming US employment, ISM PMI, and inflation data. These figures could provide the first strong signals regarding the Fed's 2026 policy. Macroeconomic data shapes interest rate expectations and directly impacts dollar, bond, and cryptocurrency pricing.
Markets are discussing the possibility of the Fed implementing deeper-than-expected interest rate cuts throughout 2026. This expectation puts pressure on the dollar while opening up space for gold and risky assets. A shift in monetary policy direction will be influential in determining medium-to-long-term trends across all asset classes. Entering 2026, global markets face geopolitical risks, trade policies, and structural economic problems. Growth expectations diverge by country, and uncertainty remains high. In this environment, capital flows become more selective, and volatility may become persistent.
The ongoing protests in Iran demonstrate that regional political risks have not yet disappeared. The Middle East agenda is closely monitored in terms of energy supply and geopolitical balance. Instability in the region could impact oil prices and global inflation expectations.
The Sahm Rule is one of the most practical labor market indicators used to measure the approach to recession in the US economy. It signals a recession when the average unemployment rate over the last three months rises by 0.50 percentage points or more compared to the previous 12-month average, and historically, this signal has often been confirmed without delay. The gray areas in the graph clearly show how accurately the Sahm Rule detects recessions. While the indicator is currently on an upward trend, a sustained recession trigger level has not yet been confirmed. A cooling in the labor market is becoming clearer, but the Sahm Rule is currently in "early warning" mode, not yet producing a "definite recession" signal. The risk is increasing, but the alarm isn't sounding yet; we are at a threshold that needs to be monitored.
The yield curve is one of the simplest indicators reflecting market economic expectations. When the 10-year Treasury yield falls below the 2-year yield (inverted yield curve), the market generally begins to price in expectations of an economic slowdown and recession. Historically, this inversion has preceded almost every recession in the US. Therefore, the yield curve is an indicator that foreshadows a recession, but requires patience regarding timing. The yield curve has remained in inverted territory for a long time, and normalization is not yet clear. I would say the market indicates that tight conditions will continue in the short term.
In a week where geopolitical risks have risen again, precious metals maintain their safe-haven role, while the structural demand story becomes more visible in silver and copper. Areas such as energy transition, battery technologies, electric vehicles, and data centers continue to support demand for silver and copper. Expectations of a deepening global supply deficit, especially in copper, are keeping prices under upward pressure in the medium to long term. In this context, macroeconomic and geopolitical developments will be critical as well as technical levels next week.
Gold maintains its strong outlook with rising geopolitical risks and softening macroeconomic data. In the short term, the 4,490-4,550 band stands out as an important resistance zone, while 4,445 (Fibonacci 0.618) and 4,412 (Fibonacci 0.5) levels are the first support areas in pullbacks. Sustained trading above this level could allow the upward trend to continue and be consolidated. The trend for gold remains unbroken, but overcoming the resistance zone is necessary for new momentum.
On the silver side, both safe-haven sentiment and industrial demand are working together. Technically, the 78.70-79.00 region is the short-term equilibrium area; above, the 81.00-84.00 band is the main resistance that needs to be overcome. In downward corrections, the 77.00 (Fibonacci 0.5) and 75.40 (Fibonacci 0.382) levels should be closely monitored. Silver presents a more volatile but stronger story compared to gold.
Copper prices remain strong despite global growth concerns, due to supply-side tightness. In the short term, the 5.93 (Fibonacci 0.5) level is a critical pivot; below this, the 5.81-5.71 support levels should be watched, while above, the 6.00-6.13 resistance zone should be monitored. Medium-term projections suggest that corrections can be considered buying opportunities. Pullbacks in copper are not a sign of weakness, but rather potential opportunities due to the supply deficit narrative.
Platinum finds support not only for its precious metal status but also for its industrial use. Technically, the 2.283 (Fibonacci 0.618) level is a significant threshold; sustained trading above this level could push the price towards the 2.390-2.525 band. Below, the 2.208 (Fibonacci 0.5) level is the main support. Platinum quietly but steadily maintains its upward potential.
We ended last week by bringing the question of "is risk appetite returning?" back to the table. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 ended the week near new highs, while the Nasdaq also rose, albeit at a more selective pace. The market hasn't finished the "growth or recession?" debate. However, optimism prevailed in the short term.
GOOGL had a strong week close, closing at 328.57 with approximately 3.68% growth. Buy signals remain very strong over the long term, such as the weekly close. GOOGL announced strategic moves in energy infrastructure to support its AI and data center investments.
In addition, while buy signals remain strong in JNJ in the long term, we may see pullbacks in the short term. JNJ announced its first-quarter 2026 dividend and confirmed the completion of its previously announced acquisition.
In LMT, price action, along with news flow, made the "geopolitical risk premium" more visible. LMT made headlines with official announcements regarding new and expanded contracts for the defense industry. In a climate of increasing geopolitical risk, these announcements indicated that the order book remains strong.
Bitcoin STH MVRV is the first on-chain data point I look at at the start of the week, and it's currently at 0.92: short-term investors are still at a loss. The MVRV score for short-term investors is 0.92, and if Bitcoin can close roughly above 98,000, then it will move into the green zone. There's no need to look for excitement before seeing that, and when it reaches 98,000, short-term investors might act with a "my losses are covered, let me sell and get out" mentality. This underlines that the 98,000 level is a significant resistance. In conclusion, it's impossible to claim that the trend has turned positive without increasing happiness in the sensitive hearts of short-term investors.
Corrections during Bitcoin bear seasons are gradually losing strength; that is, Bitcoin is no longer experiencing the sharpest declines as in previous bear cycles. The main reason for this is increased adaptation. The entry of institutional investors into the market, ETFs, regulatory clarity, and the global acceptance of Bitcoin have fundamentally changed the price structure. With this maturation process, the maximum upside rates seen in bull cycles have decreased, while the maximum downside rates in bear seasons have become significantly shallower. Let's also note the levels we need to monitor by checking the long-term picture.
Resistance Zone —> 98000 - 105000 (sth cost and 200dma)
Support Zone —> 80000 - 82000 (true market mean and spot ETF costs)
The costs of Bitcoin and Ethereum accumulation addresses are particularly vital for bull cycles.
Bitcoin accumulation addresses RP —> 75800
Ethereum accumulation addresses RP —> 2700
I mentioned bull cycles, but this paradigm changed in 2024. With spot ETF approvals, inflows to these addresses increased dramatically. So, some people are accumulating BTC and ETH without even looking back (without selling). That's why, in the current bull cycle, neither BTC nor ETH has fallen below the cost basis of these addresses, and couldn't. Because they are accumulating regularly without looking at the price. I don't think gold will easily test these levels in the current cycle unless we see a "black swan" story.
In the second week of 2026, markets navigated a search for balance, simultaneously pricing in macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments. On the US side, labor market data confirmed an economic slowdown, while expectations that the Fed might pursue a more dovish policy throughout 2026 supported risky assets. In commodities, gold maintained its safe-haven role, while the structural demand narrative came to the forefront for silver and copper. On the BIST (Istanbul Stock Exchange), supported by expectations of interest rate cuts, the index reached new highs, highlighting selective upward movement and maintaining the importance of the DCA (Direct Account for Preferences) strategy. The picture is clear in the cryptocurrency world: short-term investors are still at a loss, requiring a more gradual digestion of upward movements. In the long term, institutional adoption and the ETF effect point to a structure where Bitcoin and Ethereum are experiencing more mature and shallower corrections compared to previous cycles. In short, this week was about balance, not exuberance, and sustainability, not speed.
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