This is the cryptocurrency market outlook, based on cocktail of purely technical indicators that I use. This entails, that bullish or bearish signals given in this series do not portray my sentiment towards any particular project. I try to write this diary for myself, as it helps to maintain trading discipline, but I hope you as my reader can also benefit from it (even if it's just a laugh at my fails). I plan to publish daily, but probably not on Tuesdays, and weekends might have some spotty coverage as well. And by any means this is no advice, financial or otherwise.
The system consists of:
- 3 indicators, handpicked from literally hundreds I've tested. Each offers different sensitivity, each of them quite accurate by itself, together meant to produce an highly accurate signal for entry and an early warning for open trades,
- 3 groups of moving averages - a battle-tested combination from forex markets, for the purpose of getting a bigger picture of the market. They indicate how cautiously I will approach signals from indicators,
- H4 timeframe - I would prefer daily, but I write my posts "in the evening" meaning usually around 20:00 UTC (that's still kinda late in my timezone), I need closed candles or I risk that indicator will change value after I post and before closing of the daily candle. I don't need to get rich tomorrow, I prefer trading with less noise. Crypto being volatile as it is on lower timeframes is subject to random pumps and overreactions of the market that easily throw technical indicators off track - that is costly when using leverage.
BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, LINK, DOT, TRX and even DOGE
There is no point in writing about each one alone since recent charts on H4 loot so similar I would honestly not recognize one from the other. Recent reversal kicked me out from my long BTC position with 5,5% loss - not a nice feeling, but I expected this might happen so the position was small. All 3 indicators turned bearish so I took a short position, the choice was TRX since at the moment of making the trade it had the most potential left till major support levels (recent lows).
This makes me wonder if there is any sense looking at something more than BTC, since correlation is so staggering. Of course I could look for some lower caps, but unfortunately I'm quite limited in the choice of coins that I can trade this way. For now high correlation of major coins suggests an obvious uncertainty of the market, IMHO linked to macro events like US tempering and Ukrain possible conflict. I think such events should not have this much of an impact on the crypto market, since they not relate directly to fundamentals of cryptocurrencies, but we have a "more mature" market right now with more big players that pay much attention to such events, so as a traders we too have to evolve.
May your coins be like cats - eager to climb and unable to come down,