Big Pump or Big Dump? Why Onchain Metrics doesnt work?
There are many bots that track such cold wallet transactions and transfers between exchanges. What are these translations really?
Such services do not carry any value. Why? Because most of the transfers that bots notify us about are ordinary intra-exchange transfers from one cold wallet to another.
Some of the wallets have labels such as: "Coinbase Pro", "Bitfinex", "Binance" and so on. However, not all wallets are marked and, with a certain degree of certainty, we can say that about 90% of such "large" transactions are transfers from non-marked cold wallets of exchanges to their own exchange wallets.
Even if 🐋. Even if some of the transfers belong to "large" market participants, do you really think that they will enter the market with a market order for the entire amount at once, creating a green candle of 10-15%?
Of course not! After all, this violates the basics of managing large capital. In the same way, you can buy a low-liquid coin "at the market" for the entire deposit, influencing the price and instantly losing 10-15% of the purchase amount. Will you be happy with this?
How are representatives of big capital purchased? 💰
Representatives of large capital use the services of OTC transactions, buying directly from other major market participants, without intermediaries represented by exchanges, while not affecting the price.
Or they systematically accumulate an asset during long-term consolidations.
What are transaction tracking bots really made for? 🛠
Bots such as "Whale Alert", "CryptoQuant Alert" and others were created solely to attract traffic to their main on-chain analysis services: "cryptoquant.com", "coinglass.com" and the like. They work on the principle of word of mouth, recruiting an audience from inexperienced market participants, redirecting it from bots to their expensive and useless services.
Does on-chain analysis work? 👨🏻💻
No, it does not work. Long discussions can be held on the topic of on-chain analysis, but this will not make it workable.
Only classical analysis, trading and risk management systems will make you a profitable trader at a distance.
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