Darkest before the Dawn

Darkest before the Dawn


One of my favorite youtubers, Bob Loukas, just dropped a video. The link to it is in the resources below. (Be aware he only focuses on Bitcoin, and looks at the four year cycle through charts, so if that is not your cup of tea you can skip it.)

I know, I know, I suggested you ignore most youtubers right now, but Bob only posts a few times a year, and takes a long-term view, which I believe is the right strategy for current conditions. It's easy to get caught up in all the current FUD, and notice how these FUDs build and get extended, until of course they go too far and miss the turn. And remember the opposite pattern occurs at bull tops. 

There is a lot that has gone wrong, and more that we are told every day that could go wrong, but the thing we have going for us is a big drop in price and a lot water under the bridge (ie time). Bob covers how this is an attractive entry point, even if we have one more downside blow off, and I agree with him. That being said I wouldn't be in a huge hurry, or commit too much, but yes, this indeed may be a good time to plant your saplings and watch them become trees years down the road. And I would be cautious about short positions....as we've seen recently, the market can turn very fast and drive the shorts out of the market...better you are not one of them, unless you are a full-time trader and have the wisdom and expertise to manage this risk. 

I continue to rest in equanimity: if it goes up I just hold tight and don't chase (though if we jumped a lot and things looked to be ahead of itself, some profit taking might make sense) and when it drops, nibble in quality names that not only should survive this crypto winter but have planted seedlings of their own that should be able to be harvested in the next bull market, which yes, like the dawn after a long, dark night, will occur at some point, if history is any lesson. 

This economic environment is different than what we've seen the last 10 years or so, and indeed, may continue to be different going forward. How this all plays out will need to be paid attention to from a top down perspective. But crypto continues to act well in tough conditions, and the quality companies continue to do the right things, as well as the smart money still seems to be moving into this asset class. Personally I believe this is the play for the rest of this decade (along with biotech and AI). If we can establish size appropriate positions and then focus on other things instead of the day to day news and market movies, we may be very surprised in a year or two how much things have gone up (and then remember to take profits next time ;) 

I truly wish you the best, and feel free to share your thoughts below. And if you watch the video feel free to share it also. We need wisdom in these times, and I feel Bob has some to offer us. May you be well!

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Let us spread the wealth
Let us spread the wealth

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The nature of investing and life
The nature of investing and life

My posts will range from overall broader viewpoints on crypto and life and even Buddhism, something I practice every day. My hope is that you benefit is some way from my sharing, but more important I'm doing this because I enjoy it. Find your joy and support others in exploring theirs! As always, buyer beware, do your homework, only invest in the beginning what you can afford to lose, and let time be on your side. May the crypto be with you ;)

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