International monetary fund ( IMF) projected on Tuesday that the "Great Lockdown" fueled by the coronavirus pandemic will be the worst recession after the "Great Depression" in 1929-1932 and continue to hunt if we fail to manage the outbreak. We will see a sharp decline in global economic growth, As per the predection the global growth will plummet to - 3 per cent from 2.9 in 2020, much worsen than 2008-2009 Economic Collapse.
The Chief Economist at IMF Gita Gopinath said that, In a baseline scenario, which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support.
She also said that the recession triggered by the coronavirus pandemic will be considerably milder than the Great Depression when the global output contracted by 10 per cent.
How will impact on "Developed Countries "
Advanced economies will hit hard by this deadly coronavirus outbreak, US economy will fall to 5.9 per cent in 2020, with a rebound to 4.7 per cent growth in 2021. Eurozone economies will shrink by 7.5 per cent in 2020, with a hard-hit seeing Italy by 9.1 per cent followed by Spain 8 per cent, 7 per cent in Germany and 7.2 per cent in France. It's predicted as all European area as one and would match the same growth of US by 2021.
How about Emerging Markets under pandemic ?
There will a few countries that will maintain positive growth and India will be on top with 1.9 per cent in 2020 and expected to grow 4.2 per cent or more when the pandemic is over in 2021. China also showing the same momentum but due to the uncertainty in Chinese market may lead to a slow down the growth in the coming years which will open the door to new emerging markets like Vietnam, Indonesia, Mexico, Bangladesh and India. US and Japanese companies had already shown their stand in Chinese market. It seems like nobody wants to keep their eggs in the same basket.
We have seen ups and downs in global economies and it will come and go, super powers will rise and fall as the season changes and COVID 19 is just a reason.
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