This is the first rundown of October! Welcome to “Q4,” as they say in the biz.
Prices have started running across the board and people are getting excited. I’ve been excited since August so our recent pump doesn’t change anything for me.
As the data have shown for a while, this market looks strong but we still don’t see a lot of new, fresh money coming in yet. Some, but not much. As a result, a drop to $37,000 for bitcoin would not surprise me, nor worry me. Lower than $37k, different story.
That said, I expect the market will do something like this over the next few months:
That’s just some squiggles I drew for giggles on September 4, based on how bitcoin’s price moved during its seven previous bull market consolidations, each of which lasted 5-7 months.
Each of those times, bitcoin’s on-chain, trading, and price data matched roughly what we’ve seen over the past few months, so I’m assuming the market will play out roughly the same way this time, too.
For the past month, bitcoin’s price has roughly followed that same path as it did on average during those previous similar conditions.
Will it keep going this way?
We shall see. I’ll keep checking up on these squiggles in my updates for premium subscribers.
While it’s great to celebrate a little pump, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. If you’re following my plan, you know what I’m doing, and it has nothing to do with projections and expectations.
Scroll down for the rest of the rundown or tap the links immediately below to see what you missed in September.
What you missed in September
Bottom line: a subsidiary of Société Générale, the third-largest bank in France, wants to post bonds as collateral to borrow Dai. Next, the MakerDAO community will decide whether to accept these bonds as collateral.
My take: much focus on Visa’s use of Ethereum and Twitter’s use of bitcoin. SocGen’s use of MakerDAO is at least as significant, if not as sexy. By tokenizing its bonds and leveraging a protocol for credit, SocGen could prove DeFi’s most relevant use case for the legacy financial system (and the trillions of dollars it controls).
Why we care: $20 million is a trivial amount of money, but that’s not the point. TradFi will not use DeFi until it feels comfortable with it. The only way that will happen is for them to use these protocols and find success in doing so—one loan at a time, one step at a time. If SocGen has a positive experience with MakerDAO, that will help others get into the game, too.
Watch this video for a simple walk-through of how to create a new wallet with Metamask. There’s a lot more to learn but this is your first step.
Metamask lets you access all of the features and benefits of Ethereum and erc-20 tokens. It also lets you hop over to Binance Smart Chain, Polygon, and other compatible blockchains. If you’re interested in DeFi, DEXs, participating in DAOs, or staking tokens for rewards, you need to learn how to use it.
Please note, I don’t endorse HEX, I pass the video along because I haven’t seen anybody walk you through the Metamask wallet creation so easily in just two minutes.
For some reason, I couldn’t help but laugh when he sees the “Help Metamask” screen and says “please read all of this and click ‘no thanks.’”
Bottom line: Blackrock made money betting on bitcoin.
My take: it’s not much money but it’s a start. $360k earlier this year, another $360k now, keep it up and it’ll get harder and harder for people to say bitcoin’s useless.
Why we care: when top-tier shops like Blackrock make money from bitcoin, it makes others interested in making money from bitcoin, too. Whether that’s the best thing for bitcoin? Debatable. The attention makes people think it’s normal, dare I say “safe.”
Relax and enjoy the ride!