(September 17, 2020 9:00 PM EST)
Bitcoin pulled back on Thursday, initially reaching up above the $11,000 level before pulling back, closing at $10,900. It's worth noting that Bitcoin's high for the day was at immediate resistance overhead at $11,000 and its low was ~$10,750, barely above the 50 Day EMA line. This indicates support at the 50 Day EMA, at least in the short-term.
Support: Look for support at the 50 Day EMA, then $10,000, which is a huge psychological level. Next would be the 200 Day EMA around $9,458. That is where I would stake another tranche of buying, and look for other technical buyers to step in as well. However, crypto is volatile and it is very possible that Bitcoin makes a deeper retracement to the 50% fib level around $8,201.07. This would make a lot of sense as $8,000 was previous resistance that was broken leading up to the recent run from $4,000 to $12,000. A 50% retracement to ~$8,000 would also satisfy a lot of Ellioticians as a defining Wave 2 correction. If this is true, this would be an excellent buying opportunity for the golden Wave 3, which would Bitcoin well above the $12,000 level where BTC has found recent resistance and up closer to the all-time highs.
Resistance: In the short-term, resistance is at $11,000 and then $12,000. After that, it's $14,000 and probably a straight shot up to $20,000, which is where there would be major resistance at the previous all-time high and a handful of insufferable bagholders who bought December 2017, though not many are left who have any significant holdings to unload at those levels.
Outlook:
I think at this point Bitcoin is likely to trade in a range between $10,000 and $11,000 until there is a catalyst for a significant move in either direction. Whether that's Bitcoin, equities, or gold-related remains to be seen. However, there is a lot of looming action in the equities and commodities markets, and volatility there should spill over into Bitcoin. This means that a breakdown in the S&P could drag Bitcoin lower, temporarily, only to find support sooner than equities do on stronger fundamentals vs the USD.
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