Bitcoin kicked off the week with a bit of a rocky start, initially rallying to a new around $19,000 before pulling back, dropping nearly $1,500 before turning around, eventually closing the daily candle slightly in the red around $18,300. This is a bearish candle following a parabolic run, indicating Bitcoin may be near or at a local top, and selling pressure is beginning to catch up or even exceed buying pressure. 
Outlook: Bitcoin had a dicey start to Thanksgiving week, putting in a slightly new local high but then finding resistance and dropping almost 10% before recovering. Bitcoin clearly had a fantastic run here and went parabolic over the past couple weeks, but the fun is about over, at least for the near-term, and Bitcoin is starting to look like its running out of momentum and a pullback is likely. I think this makes a lot of sense, especially amid a seasonal liquidity drought in legacy markets that'll likely drag down BTC with them at some point over the next few weeks. Ultimately, I think this pullback probably retraces to the $14,000 level or as low as $12,000 before the buyers step in and load up on value at lower levels. Bitcoin is only just getting started, and while there's been a bit of media attention over the last few weeks, Bitcoin is within earshot of its 2017 ATH and there is but a fraction of the attention and sensationalism there was 3 years ago. Given the added daily buying pressure by PayPal and Square -- who are said to reportedly be buying a majority of the new 900 Bitcoin mined everyday, demand continues to grow while supply remains the same/diminishes over time, until, of course, all 21 million Bitcoin will have been mined.
I don't love buying at these levels, but I continue to accumulate, even in smaller tranches here, but especially lower. I am not a seller whatsoever; in fact, I won't even consider the thought until Bitcoin is in the six-figures, which I portend is probably no more than two years away.
Support: Look for support around $14,000, or frankly even $13,000 would be value at this point. The lower Bitcoin goes, the higher the chance of a violent bounce. On a late Nov/early Dec selloff, which is looking more and more sharp for Bitcoin given this blowoff top, I’m looking to buy dips. On longer-term Weekly chart, you can see Bitcoin tends to retrace ~30% or so during bull market rallies, indicating a $4,000 - $7,000 pullback is in store for Bitcoin in the shorter-term.
Resistance: $20,000 is my target here on this rally. This is Bitcoin’s all-time high and a large, round psychological level. Any retail minnows who got sucked into the December 2017 mania and bought the top will likely be looking to break even, which probably are minimal, and that selling pressure will be a fraction compared to the technical selling after a full multi-year retrace. I think $20,000 is a tough resistance level that’ll put up a fight possibly into Q1 2021, but will inevitably fall as crypto in 2020-2021 is completely different and more evolved than speculation mania in 2017. As such, I am looking for a new ATH by early 2021 and a sustained bull market over the following couple of years.
About Us:
If you enjoy these posts, please support the channel by "Tipping" this post below, or using either of the referral links below.
They cost you nothing and give me a small reward, which makes me a little happier to share these personal analyses with you at no cost.
