A path to estimating COVID IFR

In order to make sense of COVID, we should monitor the data.

So that is how the report below originated.

It is based on CDC data, but gives insight that no current chart seems to give.



Full report at:

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/open.right/viz/Test1_16360306593040/EstimatedFalityRateDashboard

The first chart is number of weekly reported cases and total reported cases.

The second is the number of excess deaths (of any cause), which is the best indication of COVID deaths (it should be an overestimate).

The third chart is CFR (Case Fatality Rate).  Divide the number of deaths by the number of reported cases.

Now the CFR is not the actual fatality rate.  I remember early on people were saying 6 percent of people with COVID died.  Such statements were never true, and misunderstand the statistics. Not all cases are reported.  So we need to divide by the underreported factor. The CDC has stated the Underreported factor in various places, and lowered it over time (the public is more likely to test more and report case now).

The fourth chart is the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate).   This divides CFR by the Underreported factor, as stated by the CDC.

Halloween surprise

According to CDC data, the IFR is relatively constant at 0.5%.

Until the end of October, where cases went up, but deaths continued a downward decline.
This leads to a consistent decline in IFR.

So what occurred at the end of October?

According the a disease researcher in San Diego, Omicron may have originated in September or October.

https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2021/11/29/22807482/omicron-variant-covid-when-did-it-start-origins-coronavirus

It seems also that Omicron antibodies could be effective against the Delta variant.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/28/covid-omicron-appears-to-protect-against-delta-could-displace-it-study.html

Could it be that the the effective remedy to COVID is ... COVID?

Let's hope for a continued decline.

Comments to improve the report are welcome.