I hate to say it but the possibility of war in Ukraine is reaching the level of no return. A lot has been said in the last 24 hours by the West but mainly Russia that has backed them into a corner to where they really almost are going to have to launch some sort of attack. What they do and if it quickly spirals into other areas of Europe and around Russia's borders themselves (ie Georgia).
Since part one as more and more information has come to light the information can be grouped into a few things. Russian troops (movements and drills), Western and Ukrainian comments, Separatists comments, and lastly and most importantly Russian comments.
Russian Troops
The biggest way that everyone has tried to figure out what Russia is doing is by monitoring their troops' deployments and drills. When it was claimed that Russia was sending some troops back to their bases the world breathed a sigh of relief but it rapidly became clear this was not the case. Satellites even picked up additional troops arriving something that caught me off guard as I figured Russia would stand pat as is. Russia now has 190,000 troops though at the border and just a week ago the number was around 125,000 to 150,000 troops. There is no evidence at all that any of them have left like Russia had stated would be happening.
Blood has been moved to the border which is something you wouldn't do unless you thought something was going to happen to require said blood pushing the idea that something is going to happen. The scariest thing was the announcement that Russian troops tomorrow will undergo a "nuclear drills" as in what they would do if nuclear war occurred. What is really odd about this at least is that no nuclear weapons reside in Ukraine so I am not sure why they would need these "drills". While other countries do have similar things none of them move 190,000 troops towards a border to do so.
Western/Ukrainian Comments
Vice President Harris has arrived in Europe to meet with NATO allies and commanders to lend support for Ukraine and help continue to present a united front. The Senate as well passed a resolution yesterday to stand with Ukraine against this aggression. At the UN Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a surprise appearance where he confronted Russian diplomats with evidence in front of the assembly showing that they were not doing what they had claimed. He told them to their face that if they continued this the consequences will be swift and extremely harsh.
Earlier today the US also approved a $6 billion tank deal to Poland to arm them with new tanks. This move is expedited with the current Ukrainian situation and with Poland bordering Belarus a country with close ties to Russia and whos territory Russia is using for these military exercises. One of the quietest European leaders so far, the leader from Germany, publically took Putin to task during the interview after meeting with him. This is a huge deal because of the Nord 2 pipeline that would connect Russian gas to Germany bipassing Ukraine. With this move against them it shows Europe is getting fed up with this situation and the lack of progress with Russia.
Separatists Comments
Earlier today news broke from Axios that Separatist leaders in Eastern Urkaine had ordered the evacuation of all women, children, and elderly to Russia. These comments combined with comments from one of the militia leaders calling for veterans of the war to rejoin the separatist forces appear to highlight that tensions are going to at a minimum increase further and possibly erupt into war.
Russian Comments
Beside the troop movements and announcements that go with that significant news broke about Belarus. The leader of Belarus is known as the last dictator of Europe and literally sent fighter planes after a airline last year to force it to land to arrest a journalist. Years ago they signed an agreement that would more or less merge the two countries into one. However the citizens of Belarus pushed back and this idea was pushed to the side. Now Russia has announced that not only is the President of Belarus going to take part in the military exercise tomorrow but that "significant progress" had been made. If Russia ends up more or less annexing Belarus this would mean that the Northern part of Ukraine and its Capitol are within spitting distance of Russia. While not a lot is known about this it is very concerning for Ukrainian sovernty.
Final Thoughts
Each of these updates by themselves are concerning however when you combine them all it is shocking how quickly the situation is deterarating. This is causing every market to shudder with the possibility of war and what the response and outlook for the future could be. I still maintain hope that Putin will realise he can only lose here and back off but that has yet to be seen.
Please know I am not a financial advisor I am just someone who picked up on a trend and wanted to express it! Makes sure you always do your own research and never invest money you cannot afford to lose! If you enjoyed this article and would like to further support me below are a couple of referral links that if you used when signing up I would appreciate it! Also, follow me on Twitter @Cje95_
Robinhood
Currently, Robinhood is offering an amazing deal where you can choose 3 different companies you want fractional shares of when you sign up using the link here and connect your bank account! You also are added to the crypto wallet waitlist and like always both stock and crypto trading is commission-free! 🤝
Fold App
Offers daily wheel spins to win free sats daily! If you sign up for Fold with my link here you will get 5,000 sats for free!
Unstoppable Domains
Sign up using my link here and get a free $10 credit towards your first $40+ purchase!
Coinbase
Sign up for Coinbase and earn $10 of free Bitcoin when you buy or sell $100 in crypto with my referral here!
SMiles
If you are like me and walk to work every day this app rewards your walking with Sats! So far I have earned over 4,000 sats in just a couple of months walking to work! Here is my link!
