The war has now entered its third week and while Russia and Ukraine have continued to talk it is hard to find anyone that is optimistic about how they will turn out. All previous attempts have fallen flat on their face often with Russia violating its own ceasefire to let civilians evacuate from surrounding areas. Several things emerged this weekend that could prove pivotal though in not only the immediate future but also years down the road as well.
Mariupol
The port city of Mariupol made huge headlines last week due to the Russians striking a maternity hospital. Sadly, due to injuries sustained during the strike a mother and her child have now passed away. After the strike, an image of the woman being carried on a stretcher went viral around the world. Once evacuated this mother had to undergo an immediate c-section however, this emergency surgery did not save the child as it was declared dead not long after birth. Now, days after fighting for her own life the mother has also passed away. Russian media has continued to try and downplay the attack using ideas and reasons from it being a military hospital to no civilians being there to even accuse those filmed and photographed as being crisis actors.
Mariupol was also one of the cities that was supposed to have humanitarian evacuation corridors but they were consistently being shelled by the Russians preventing anyone from being able to evacuate. This has resulted in a new number of dead verified by the city of 2,500 individuals a number that they expect to only get worse because they cannot search most of the city where buildings have collapsed. There has been one kind of positive development. Finally, a corridor has been opened that some civilians have been able to escape through to other Ukrainian-controlled territories. An issue with this corridor though is that you have to have a personal vehicle to be able to use it as the Russians are not allowing buses to be used here. It isn't great and could be far better but it is allowing some civilians that can get out of the city.
How this city has been able to maintain its ability to hold out is nothing short of awe-inspiring. They have overcome overwhelming odds and indiscriminate bombing for days upon days now and still manage to push back against offenses.
No-Fly Zone
This weekend something occurred that I do not think a single person expected or anticipated happening. A Soviet-era drone typically used for reconnaissance that had been operating in Ukraine left the warzone and flew over two NATO countries (Hungry and Romania) before crashing in Croatia. Currently, it is not known which side launched the drone but it was found to have been armed with a bomb that went off when it crashed. When Croatia asked about what had happened NATO did state that it had tracked the drone but had not taken any action against it leading many to wonder if it was a Ukrainian or if NATO did not want to engage it since they did not know which sides it was. Currently, both sides have said they did not launch it and have blamed the other however since its black box was recovered this should be able to be figured out rather quickly.
Along with the Russian bombing 12 miles from the Poland border the first NATO ally has stated that a No-Fly zone needs to be implemented in Ukraine. This request has come from Estonia, a Baltic state country, and was requested to prevent civilian deaths. Most likely this has been requested since western Ukraine has been attacked where there are still a lot of refugees who have fled eastern Ukraine waiting to cross. Also, this would push Russian aggression away from these NATO countries.
In another twist after last week, the reports stating that the Russian strikes were coming from systems that a No-Fly zone via planes would not be able to deal with Ukraine announced today that the majority of the strikes were coming from airpower. Typically airpower is used to describe aircraft of various kinds and would be different than cruise missiles or artillery. So if this is what is being used against military and civilian targets NATO enforcing a No-Fly zone would have an impact on taking away this Russian capability. As it stands the US has given no indication on doing this but it could try to speed up or figure an end-around to get the Poland MiG jets to the Ukrainian Forces.
Russian Advance
It almost seems like it was long long ago that Kyiv looked to be in huge trouble with a massive 40-mile long column of various military vehicles headed to the front lines. Since it has been spotted and tracked though it has been hard to see it or any of Russia's attempts to advance do anything. While they have had some success in the southern part of the country even there they are running into more and more issues. Intelligence reports have come out saying that this is in part due to successful strikes and attacks by Ukraine on logistical and sustainability equipment. Meaning while they might not take out the artillery or the tanks what they are taking out is the equipment vital to coordinate between different parts of the Russian force and other things like their food and fuel supply.
The disaster that is invading Ukraine has shown consequences back home as the intelligence chief and his deputy who supposedly gave Putin the intel that he would be welcome in Ukraine is now under house arrest. Due to how bad Russia is looking on an international stage this is not surprising as Putin will need someone to scapegoat at the end of this invasion in whatever way shape or form that occurs. It seems that he has decided on the first couple of people he will blame whether it really is their fault or not.
Final Thoughts
Russia has declared that the Western military aid to the Ukrainian forces is now a legitimate target however there has been nothing about if they have actually attacked or hit any of these shipments. Over the weekend the US got an additional $350 million in weapons to the country to continue to defend itself. By declaring these shipments targets it shows that Russia is not able to do what it wants with Ukraine due to the resistance and is running out of ideas/options. They have even gone on to start paying "battle-hardened" people from the Middle East to come to fight for them in Ukraine. With an army the size that Russia has, it shouldn't have to resort to outsourcing its fighting as it cost more money than they currently have.
Putin has moved in all of the resources that he had amassed along the border with Ukraine which means he really underestimated Ukraine. Now, anything else he needs he will have to ship in from across the country as his military assets continue to get pummeled by the Ukrainian forces. With foreign volunteers arriving, some who have exceptional military training, the Russians could be in for more of a fight than they already are as crazy as that sounds.
