A Further Explanation of the Article Title.
After a week of intense fighting around the country with Russia having little to show in any sort of significant military gain, a "major" Ukrainian city has fallen. I am not trying to undercut the fall of any Ukrainian city as any capture by the Russian is bad but Kherson has a population of roughly 300,000 people which given the size of major cities across the world doesn't really make it a major one. The Russians have also doubled down on attacking civilian infrastructure even accidentally. In Kyiv, there were a few significant explosions one of which does appear to have been an accident because the missile broke apart in the air and a chunk of it fell and hit the gas pipeline in the city. However, in one of the major targets of Russia, Mariupol, the Mayor of the city has publically called out the human catastrophe that is occurring. The Russians have cut off all of their medical and food supplies and are bombing their power system and rail system nonstop to prevent fixes from occurring. In a stunning move, the 40-mile long Russian convoy that appeared to be regrouping outside of Kyiv has run into an even stupider reason for not moving..... Most of the column is out of gas... This column included vehicles transporting fuel.
In a much more light-hearted and spirit uplifting move Ukrainian farmers have continued to mess with the Russians in one of the funniest things I think that could occur at this time. Previously, videos had shown these farmers towing away tanks to either their farms or even to the Ukrainians to give them a whole new tank! All it needed was a little fuel and it was good to go! The government game out and stated that it was a tax-free thing to take ownership of Russian military vehicles and so the farmers have continued to do so! They have even upped their game as videos have shown that they are even taking missile launch systems at this point! I do not know how Russia could have failed this bad as they have tried to eliminate any sort of Ukrainian missile system capabilities and now they are practically gifting them to the Ukrainians forcing Russia to have a continuing issue with the very thing they have tried to eliminate!
First Major City Falls
To understand the troop's movements and what is going on in Ukraine I find it critical to look at the maps of the controlled territory. This one below is the most updated one I have run across this morning.
When looking at this map it is important to see that in the North not much has changed the last few days. Kharkiv which is the second-largest city with a population of over 1.4 million and located 50 miles from the Russian border continues to stay under Ukrainian control. Kyiv the largest city and Capitol remains in Ukrainian control and has breathing room around it even. Odessa, a key port city in the south along the Black Sea and the third-largest city in Ukraine, remains in Ukrainian control, and the fighting is still pretty far away compared to the other major cities in Ukraine.
The significant Russian gains have all occurred in the south over the last couple of days. As seen in the map Putin is getting close to accomplishing a mission that many believed he would try to achieve and that was to "build" a land bridge from Russia to Crimea. Yesterday reports began to come out that the southern city of Kherson which had been surrounded for some time had finally fallen. The Russian report that stated that was disputed by the Ukrainians and from what I have heard on the ground the city for most of the day was still contested. Over the last few hours though Russia has forced the city government to issue new rules to "protect" Ukrainians. What I would expect now is that this city will be the first one where we will see an insurgency and Russian vehicle sabotage. It would also not surprise me to hear or see a ton of news about Molotov cocktails becoming a huge weapon here. Civilians that are still here I imagine will be allowed to exit the city which will benefit the Ukrainians as they will not have to worry about harming women or children with their counter attacks.
Like I mentioned before this city is not necessarily a "major" city but it is still the first and only city the Russians can hang their cap on and say look at this progress. By getting this city under their control the Russians can now focus on the next target which is going to be finally capturing Mariupol and then Odessa. If this does occur this would really put southern Ukraine under Russian occupation. Given how the majority of people here are Ukrainian and how they have treated and fought back against the occupation Russia needs to move swiftly to secure these areas. If they fail to quickly take these two other cities it will allow the people of Kherson to cause them a huge huge headache.
Russian Increase in Civilian Attacks as 40 Miles Kyiv Column Runs out of Gas
Whoever was in charge of logistics for this invasion I personally think is probably in jail now as the world has gotten to watch in real-time the spectacular failure of the column of vehicles that came over the Belarus border and seemed poised to attack Kyiv any day. First, it was thought that the convoy was regrouping but now it is known that a lot of the convey ran out of fuel and food! What's even worse about this is that the convoy literally had fuel vehicles in it. Now we have heard rumors of soldiers straight up defecting from this column and even crazier soldiers who once they found out where they were sabotaging their own vehicles by punching holes in the fuel tanks!
With this failure, the bombardment on civilian areas has increased to insane levels and only really makes me think that Putin wants to level the entire country. This type of warfare is very Soviet but has been seen in the Cechneyan wars and in Syria. The total loss of civilian life from those wars are not and never will be truly known but at a minimum 10's thousands died for no reason other than to break the minds of those who were being attacked, Currently, the city of Mariupol is surrounded and as of earlier today had undergone nonstop bombing for over 30 hours. The bombing was such that the injured could not be treated, fires could not be put out, everyone is trapped even the defense forces.
Reports of the Russian military attacking or at least firing at nuclear power plants to extremely concerning but could be something Putin would do and try to spin as a Ukrainian plot. It doesn't make the most sense but it does not have to to a typical person. If a nuclear incident occurs he could try to justify staying in Ukraine as a protection/help mission for the "clean up". If this bombardment of these facilities continues though it could end up being declared an attack on the NATO alliance due to the extreme levels of radiation that will be released and poison lands across Europe.
Farmers Tax-Free Military Vehicles
God Bless the farmers of Ukraine who continue to make a fool out of the Russian military with their amazing ploys. The way these guys and gals are going out in tractors and just towing away Russian military vehicles is something I would expect from a crazy comedy movie not real life yet here we are. As many have seen several tanks have been acquired this way but were the farmers done? Oh boy no! They have managed to grab a couple of multiple rocket launch systems and anti-aircraft vehicles! I cannot help but laugh at the videos because I know it is driving Vlad up a wall watching this happen. He and his army are being made to look like a fool on an international stage and there is no way around it! Even the allies that still stand with them cannot feel so great about what they are seeing because it makes their reliance on Russia look really sad and easy to topple.
Western Support Arrives
While a couple of days ago now SpaceX's shipments of Starlink terminals began to arrive more importantly the heavy-hitting military equipment from the Western nations is arriving. Other countries including European allies have been providing anti-armor and some anti-aircraft weaponry but the US shipments of anti-aircraft missile launch systems. These systems if they are able to be quickly set up and utilized could severely hamper further Russian incursion into Ukraine. It will take much more than what arrived to stop and reverse the tides but what has arrived along with Stinger missiles are game-changers for protecting Ukraine.
Ukrainian Nationals who were or lived abroad have begun to return en masse as well. In Europe and Canada people that do not have any ties to Ukraine are volunteering to serve. Some of these individuals have never been part of the armed forces and thus do not have any training yet they are willing to risk their lives to help protect others and stand up to a Regime that does not care about anyone. It will be interesting to see how these individuals who are joining the foreign forces impact the fight in Ukraine and if they are able to help turn the tides of war. Only time will tell, however.
Russian Threats
Putin has told French President Macron that he is not going to stop the invasion. The fact that this came out publically is not a good sign at all for the ceasefire negotiations that are underway in Belarus. All that it means is that the slaughter of civilians is only going to increase and countless innocent lives will be lost. Russia though has for the most part been pretty quiet on the international stage as it looks to its allies and the invasion to figure out how they can try to change the narrative that has clearly blown up in their face.
Final Thoughts
It's not just criminal what Putin is doing and morally wrong but now he has escalated to the point where he is trying to get the West to attack his forces. By attacking civilians as he has by attacking nuclear a single nuclear power plant he is forcing the international community and his few remaining allies to take a really hard look at what he is doing and the possible consequences they can justify to their people. The Ukrainian people though continue to put up a hell of a fight and continue to repel Russian attacks. They continue to accept more and more cryptos as partnerships continue to develop to help out the civilians and defense forces.
While I do not think the US public is going to want to put jets in the air one thing could cause that to change. Nuclear meltdowns. The environment is a huge topic right now so preventing the complete and utter destruction of large swaths of land by an outside force could kick the US into gear and force the US to begin to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine as the government has already requested. No one wants WW III but we also do not want to kill and poison 10s of millions if not more with another completely avoidable nuclear catastrophe.
