$BTCUSDT — I turned bearish when BTC broke its daily structure. Now I'm positioned for a bullish reversal near $68,500. Here's what changed my short-term view.
The bigger downtrend hasn't disappeared. But something interesting is developing on the 4H chart, and I don't want to ignore it.
Price has continued making lower lows, while RSI is forming higher lows. That's a bullish divergence. It suggests sellers are still pushing price down, but the momentum behind those moves is weakening.
RSI is now around 30.12, slightly above its average at 29.48. This is an early improvement, not confirmation of a reversal.
I'm heavily bullish on the possibility of a strong recovery from this area.
The Structure I'm Watching
BTC is attempting to stabilize around $68,500 after a prolonged decline. If buyers reclaim the nearby $70,500–$71,300 resistance and establish a higher low, that would be my first meaningful sign of improving market structure.
A confirmed bullish market structure shift could open the way toward $73,920, followed by the larger resistance region between approximately $76,500 and $79,200.
My ultimate target for this setup is $78,500.
I'm not restoring my previous $100,000 prediction. This is a separate recovery trade based on the developing 4H divergence, with a specific entry, stop and exit objective.
My Long Position — TP & SL
I've already positioned for this potential reversal, and my setup is marked directly on the chart.
Entry: $68,740
Stop-loss: $66,920
Take-profit: $78,500
Potential upside: 14.20%
Defined downside: 2.65%
Risk-to-reward: 5.36:1
These are the theoretical price-based returns before leverage, fees and slippage.
My conviction is strong, but the risk is real. A move through $66,920 would invalidate my marked trade. I won't widen the stop simply because I'm expecting a bullish reversal.
Here's the important distinction: bullish divergence can appear before a reversal, but it cannot guarantee one.
That's why I'm watching for buyers to break the sequence of lower highs rather than relying on RSI alone.
I've taken my position because I believe this developing setup offers an attractive opportunity relative to its defined risk.
The bearish trend brought BTC down to this area. Now I want to see whether weakening selling momentum can finally turn into real buying strength.
If that structure shift confirms, this recovery could become much more interesting.
