TK got most of 2021 right, except Bitcoin trajectory, TK's 2021 Score Card & what to expect by end of 2022?
Below is the 'post mortem' analysis on my 2021 End of Year Prediction Post,
I Hi-light my 2022 Investment Hunches along the way:
I rank my forecasting accuracy of 2021 as scores out of 10 and put in my prediction logic for end of 2022..
TK's 2021 Scorecard Composite Retrospective Result?
8/10
To be clear, TK 2022 hunches listed below are NOT investment advice, so do your own homework. ;)
1 - BTC Heads toward US $100K by Year End as Main FIAT Forms (Buying Power) Flames out..,
7/10, Why? The buying power of FIAT rapidly flamed out throughout 2021 in many buy categories
Organic Bread has gone from CDN $4.39 to $5.99, as a result to cope ...
Small Investors have transferred crypto wealth to Fiat to stay afloat...
as Line of Credit shrunk on house, placing pinch on disposable income.
(Making BTC a bargain at the moment hovering around US $50K)
Sheep are sheep, they run scared and retain everything when they feel threatened
#Needlecraft deaths, injuries and chronic health problems are scaring the sheep more..
TK clearly overestimated the human backbone factor & ability to bounce back.. ;/
2022 End of Year prediction for BTC?
TK Market Cap Dominance target is 35%. I stick to my BTC Price target = + US $100K
Why? The BTC community will finally start to launch value add services using Smart Contracts
DEFI will start establish a beach head in the BTC world of Lightning transactions
(It might be that Reggie Middleton leads the way with the phoenix of VERI )
https://dapp.veritaseum.com/#/dashboard
Altcoins are mainly all wannabe gambling table plays among speculators
Value Add is adopted largely in numbers by GenZ and GenY when:
it's SUPER convenient/fast with low fees charged per transactions
ERCxxxx and EVM online service offers will generate more crypto market cap growth than BTC
AND Ask yourself this BIG BTC Lightning question? Why is Algorand really running El Salvador?
2 - BTC Drags all quality Altcoins with it, with many DeFI plays tagging along for the ride
9/10, Why? Altcoins still tracked tightly to BTC movement for all of 2021
It's how the 'Whales' program their Order Routers to "run the tables" in Hi-Freq. Trading
Whale Investors placed their 10-20% of their risk curve in Hi-risk bets in 2021, most did ok
Making BTC a bargain at the moment hovering around US $50K
as these Whale Investors use Hi-Frequency trading to keep the BTC price low
Meaning the BIG SHIFT is on... baby!
2022 End of Year prediction for Altcoins?
TK ETH Market Cap Dominance target to 25%. ETH Price= + US $8K
Yup that's right, V. Buterin making the rounds pumping ETH to US$ 10K is 20% off, imo.
Why? The ETH community will continue to bleed, as Solidity developers migrate Dapps to:
SOL, DOT and some to CARDANO, a few even to IOTA and similar
for Solidity Smart Contract DEFI and NFT online service/gaming offers.
EVMs supporting ERCxxxx SCs and DEFI plays will sprout on many existing chains
Solidity will be challenged by other Programming Languages
EVM itself will be challenged by WASM based Virtual Machines
Most Programming languages compile to WASM these days.
Multi-threaded Declarative Languages with garbage collection will win.
GO, Rust, even LUA (Think ROBLOX and Lego with 452 million subscribers) will shine..
(why limit yourself to Solidity... )
3 - Main St. Economies Worldwide Shake-off Globalist Shipping and Go Regional, Start Embracing Altcoin Settlement
7/10, Why? Most Main St. Economies continued to Stagnate experiencing Inflation & Deflation
CPI- Breadbasket & Used Car & Replacement Part Price Inflation plus House Price Devaluations
Altcoin Transaction Fees have been too high in ETH and BTC terms
Wrapper Tech has helped reduce fees when moving value between Altcoins inside DEFI:
- Balancers and similar
Tesla allowing us to by a car with Bitcoin was a Bell weather moment.
2022 End of Year prediction for Main Street's adoption of Altcoin Settlement?
TK Expects two to three Large US Retail Market Leaders to finally start to embrace BTC
Why? BTC has become known generally, the stars of Wall Street are pushing BTC buys
Lightning payment Services will surface by 2Q that actually make sense = low fees
for Micro Payments:
Semi-Durable Goods- Clothing, Shoes, Hardware, groceries
Needs the Growers and Food Distributors to support it
Automotive- One of the Big 5 will break rank and accept BTC
Needs Manufacturers and subcontractors to support it.
4 - As NPCS wake up partly in Mass, 25% - They Embrace BTC to fuel it to US$100K by 2021 EOY.
5/10, Why? NPCS wake up only when death stares them in the face = VAXX Jabs
NORMIES were slow to move from WOKE to awakened
Boy did I put way too much faith in the crypto education levels of GenZ and GenY
Let's face it I largely blew this one...
2022 End of Year prediction for NPC NORMIE Adoption of BTC in daily life?
TK Expect More NORMIES to wake up in the Gen Y and Gen I space and use BTC/ETH for Retail
Why? Mortgage Payments are Bitch, House prices are still high, cash is tight
Being Tracked all the time and restricted with VAXX Passports is not cool.
CPI Inflation is eating NPC NORMIE Buying Power
NPC NORMIES will start to seek ways to conserve cash, in fear of Job loss
20%+ moving from WOKE to Awakened, enough to drive adoption
Some SMART Retailers will prefer/offer discounts for buyers using BTC, ETH
Retail/Services Crypto online will drive adoption of online Retail use
Shopify is well positioned with BTC support to help drive BTC micro payment adoption in:
Small and Medium Business in the USA and Canada
5 - The Smartening - ETH SC dominance gets challenged big time to earn 50% of SC Market by EOY 2021
9/10, Why? SOLANA, POLKADOT and CARDANO were Whale BIG bets on Smart Contracts and DEFI in 2021
evolving away from ETH dominance..
ERCXXXX protocols and the EVM became more important than ETH
both were adopted by SOLANA and #PolkaDOT and others to create better value than ETH
= Faster Transactions Per Second 'TPS'
= Better CX "Customer Experience" for Online Crypto Services
= Lower fees
= #SOL proof of History "changed the game" = order clearing compliance
2022 End of Year prediction for 'The SMARTENING'?
TK sees more seasoned #Go and #RUST (former C++) developers moving into crypto Smart Contracts
Why? Developers can use the tools, know how they already have to enter the market space easily
EVMs on multiple sidechains reduce the developer's amount of TPS fear, less risky to write to EVM
Their Dapp will work at scale now, no more ETH 1.0 bad TPS performance
('Harken back' to the CryptoKitties fiasco to understand this a bit better)
SOLANA will up their game in supporting developers better...
Developers will wake up the fact IOTA has a better developer environment using WASM
6 - Stablecoin Use shifts measurably to Balancers, Yield Management and ReBase Offers in 2021, Fast.
10/10 Why? StableCoins Rocked in 2021 for a bit, then DEFI consumed the investor buy into crypto
ERCXXXX protocols and the EVM became more important than STABLECoins to WHALE investors
DEFI's growth is largely a result of the above tech being put in play by DEFI developers
SOLANA was ultimately rewarded the most for IT'S PROMISE of
= Faster Transactions Per Second 'TPS'
= Better CX "Customer Experience" for Online Crypto Services
= Lower fees
= SOL proof of History "changed the game" = order clearing compliance
Yet only a small number of solidity developers on ETH actually migrated
2022 End of Year prediction for Stablecoins versus Balancer/Yield Management/ReBase ?
TK expects more Solidity developers to switch to SOLANA because of Proof off History and
Investors Whale and Small everywhere to get wise to looming StableCoin RISK!
Why? Solidity developers seek more TPS and guaranteed time stamped order sequences
DEFI demands it,
STABLECOINS backing their deposits with risky assets like EVERGRANDE will
LOSE Market Cap fast... as MOST crypto investors use will be WAY more selective.
7- Value Add Altcoins Stake Center Stage- IoT, Finance, Storage, Internet Reboots and, More...
9/10 Why? . DEFI Largely Rocked for most of the year...
Altcoin Value add player #BAT outperformed, but was surpassed in Mark Cap by the DEFI surge
TK's Earlier BAT specific Prediction way back in June of 2020 is here
I set a target for US 50 cents or more , a 4X upside then
BAT is now sitting at US $1.33
The Brave Browser Community and BAT rock, and have clearly over performed on Main St.
If only Publish0x had stuck with BAT, their readership would likely be 10X what it is now, just my opinion.
Storage market segment in Crypto has under-performed versus DEFI but also grown as well.
On that 'boring' storage market note:
where Filecoin makes up 33% of the Markcap in that segment:
#Maidsafe imo will continue to grind it out building Internet 2.0, look for them to rocket up the markcap table
when the SafetNetwork launches as a DAO with full Storage Vault rental lend/borrow support
and a bunch of apps and their own secure browser i a peer2peer world.
I predict Maidsafe will move up the ranks of the Storage Market Segment and grow their market cap 3X in 2022
After they do the Maidsafe OMNICoin token for Safecoin Swap... (mid 2022?)
2022 End of Year prediction for Value Add Altcoins versus Balancer/Yield Management/ReBase ?
TK expects BAT to really shine post March 2022 as Push Ads are banned in Europe thereafter.
Permissioned Advertiser Models with Rewards for the Viewer will grow in number.
So expect BAT and similar true Value Add Main Street Crypto to climb back up the Market Cap table
That Said DEFI will continue to define the Crypto market cap growth with lower fees, better CX.
Why? NORMIES Gen Z and Gen Y grew up wth Gaming and Rewards
So crypto value add plays are a natural fit in the minds of awakened NORMIES
The WOKE GenZ GenY Normie base will continue to decline,
as they get more educated, crypto wise.
and as the REAL criminality of the world syndicate gets more exposed.
NORMIES of all flavours and age groups hate Ads bombarding their Mobile Phones and,
Awakened NORMIES will look for cheaper Storage in crypto to store videos, game recordings, VR recordings etc.
Other stuff I stalked about at the beginning of 2021, worthy of Mention:
The Triple Threats dished out by MSM and Mr. Globaloney in 2021? Viruses, Vaccines and, Fiat Currency Resets/Digitization, yawn...
More of the same 'kabalist' Triple Threat shite in 2022 coming, however MANY MORE NORMIES are actually joining the truly awakened as they move away from WOKE politic to take on practical responsibilities of staying financially afloat to protect their loved ones and their home.
Central Banks worldwide in a coordinated attempt to maintain the FIAT Status Quo, will roll out their common CBDC Central Bank Digital Currency to clear balanced of payments between countries, on top of a NO CHEAT same day clearance distributed ledger.
Locally the bigger G8 nation National Central Banks will issue their own new CBDC for local use, ie- the US Digital Dollar, which might have third party risk digital, paper backing by gold and silver and maybe even copper with coinage being replaced with silver, copper and even larger valued partly gold with silver coins put into use to replace the US Federal Reserve Promissory Note Paper & Digital Species Series (US $1 to US $1000), which will be replaced in time limited exchange over 18-24 months,
Those crypto Digital gold and Silver online services will start to really flourish provided their 3rd party risk guarantees are backed by next day local delivery of metal for both paper and digital investor redemption in the form of New gold/silver coinage and gold/silver bullion delivery, meaning COMEX (Gold certificates) and JPMorgan (silver paper) are in for a world of HURT in 2022!
So 2022 will be tumultuous in my opinion, that means stock up on food, silver, gold, and spend your FIAT as qickly as you get it, converting the excess to the former, and shop wisely in the Crypto markets looking for security, convenience(speed of settlement and support of retail micro payments)
Also, just my 'pet peave', use the the Brave browser in VPN mode, you won't be disappointed and, you can earn #BAT watching your own whitelisted permissioned advertising streams.
TK over and out.
PS Turkey may be the Wild card in 2022 upside of BTC and crypto.
