Eeeeeeeverybody loves Raymond... and Doge coin.

But, one of these two was a multi-year consistently winning program with a great writer (who now also has a wonderful travel/food show or... you will hate it... not likely in between). The other is a picture that somehow means economics or investments to people who love dogs.

Don't think that I don't "get it".

I do.

'PUP' And DUMP?

Having watched a month of the most idiotic "experts" of finance explain why Bitcoin just died, is about to die, has no value, or even better, if it is adopted We're All Gonna die... one has to wonder why anyone of any credential would recommend others place actual money into Doge?

Let me establish, very importantly, that I have NO beef with Doge, its founder, or its future popularity.

This is a sound, financial warning, that unless everything that makes Doge, Doge, is changed into something different, you are making the worst determination of how to invest, if you buy Doge expecting a predictable profit.

If you bought Doge at $0.0004, and held it until it was at $0.72, you are the much win wow! But, why are pump and dump groups so necessary for low cap meme coins- one must ask? Because, other than the ease with which a coin is pumped, these coins are known to hold zero functional value. None.

While the 'crypto experts' take time on recess breaks from their 8th grade zoom call remote school courses, the adults in the room cringe at the idea of just how much money is being permanently skimmed off the top of the global economy because dogs are cute.

If a coin were useful for something other than to squeeze maximum short term impact value, they would never sit as low as $0.001 for a year, and they would never be as volatile as to pump to $0.72. Economic theory and emotional trading history both prove to be the most accurate at time of most social and emotional pressure. If Doge, last month, had the power to pump to $1, it would have done so last month. We are actually within range for it to do it today, Wednesday, June 2, 2021, ahead of its listing on Coinbase, now up more than 30%, above $0.41 again.

So, understand, I love the smiles and giggles, I appreciate the originator wanting to have fun with an internet meme, I love that it has lasting power, and the crypto sector needs a mascot. The pet rock is only accessible to the internet world as a reference to what Doge is, because it had such an impact pre-internet, there are enough people to remember why the two are so similar.

Do not spend your family's savings on a pet rock. At the end of the day, it is a rock with paint on it.

So, on the one hand, nobody in today's world should ever, EVER underestimate the power of the meme culture.

And, on the other hand...

nothing.

Absolutely nothing.

The creator of Doge abandoned the project years ago.

It began as a joke. A GREAT joke. It is without question why we all love, adore the Doge's palace (look it up. Been there, otherwise I wouldn't know either). Welcome to the dog house.

No updates on Github for years. Nothing to do here. Nothing to see here.

Someone is going to comment "yeah but Coinbase". I know- and it will probably pump again... except the "buy the rumor sell the news" has been the case 100% of the time with Doge, because it is the only thing it has going for it, and one should ask, if they are at all concerned about the future of their investable (how is it that spell check doesn't know investible OR investable?) income, did the rumor on Coinbase already pump when it was announced? Or, is that coming right before the listing? From where I sit, we are seeing maximum juice on pump day, and the question then becomes, will Coinbase be happy with their decision, or is the majority of Doge being bought and held before it is even available on their platform?

Here's the important thing to understand; there are now millions of new people in crypto because of Elon and Doge. They now believe in Doge as an economic instrument, and he has made a loose promise to the remaining developers to help improve the model, efficiency and transaction cost. If he does, and they limit or improve supply, Doge could become a serious financial asset. But, when the vast, overwhelming new millions of children, and a few of their unwitting parents, buy into Doge at the bubble, now we mark that around $0.37 to $0.47 or so, with the expectation that it will hit $1, and it doesn't, there is a panic. I know. I watched it. I saw dozens... DOZENSSSSSSSSSSSSS of YouTube Doge coin SNL watch parties posting their reactions to the show, posting the live chart and price of Doge, to celebrate the mooning of their favorite mascot, and instead they watched in horror as it dropped from $0.72 down to $0.44 by show's end. How could that possibly happen?

BUY THE RUMOR.

SELL THE NEWS!

They didn't sell the news. Oh, the people behind the pump sold the news. They sold it at $0.72.

Now, all of the misled Doge coin fanboys are holding the news, and Doge is almost back up to the $0.44 it had dropped to on that day.

Is this what people wanted from their glorious world-wide pump?

Here's what I think is happening thus far. People bought in. They bought a coin that has proven to remain worth around $0.005 at best, with the expectation that it is worth $1. The more people who believe this to be true, the more millions of dollars it takes to raise the price. The thinking is that if they just hold their Doge, no one will sell, and it will just keep going up and up and up.

First, there is the psychological ceiling that, if the expectation is $1, guess where the people behind the pump are willing to sell? Everywhere just below the barrier. Guess where they know you are going to pump it? Somewhere between your entry point, and where the crowd-limit economic buying power runs out. $1 + $0.3 / 2 = $0.65 or thereabouts.

Why was there so much sell pressure in the low $0.7's? Because Doge far outperformed the pumpers' expectations to go to $1.

The next economic pressure on a coin is supply. The wonderful, fantastic design model was to go against the grain and make the economics as bad as possible. Too much supply minted far too often. So, the incentive to buy and HODL until making your mark, does not work. It is designed to NOT work. So, there is yet another problem. If everyone holds, and I mean everyone, except the pumpers, volume becomes your enemy, and the longer you hold, unfortunately eventually, your value is going to diminish again, because a whole new patch of Doge will get dumped into the market. Even if everyone is holding, millions of... sorry... BILLIONS of new Doge will flood the market, not from scammers, but from the design of the coin.

Know your assets from a hole in the ground.

So, I do not want to see people get rekt, but then the question becomes, whether someone just wants to hold it because it is cool, they "believe" in it, and then what? Is it a financial instrument? If so, then it is precious enough to hope it goes up in price, but at some value, you are willing to use it to spend, and the joy of spending with something you like is freeing and laughably fun. That makes sense.

Except... I don't think it is fun if, for instance, you bought $1000 of Doge, want it to go up in value, so that you have more spending power when you go to spend Doge. What if you end up over-paying for everything you want to buy because once again, the intentional inflation to the market pressure against the asset is built-in. Almost everything you can buy from Mark Cuban, and really are there THAT many Mav fans in the world?... is going to cost a premium.

My next concern, is that the Coinbase pump is flawed, and maybe I am wrong at the volume-per-acquisition value. Maybe there are still so many people waiting to buy Doge, not on Robinhood, which is where 100% of the Reddit pumps are happening for Doge, but on Coinbase, where they have a wallet, where Apple pay is now going to make spending easier, that we have just begun to see the millions of dollars of Gen-Z cash enter the market.

Is that what will happen? What happens when lets say hundreds of millions of dollars of Doge are bought and held in Coinbase, and then the supply is once again diluted in value? I don't know. It will kinda be the first time something this popular goes through this model.

I promise you, PROMISE you, that if everyone buying Doge is doing it for mad gainz, there is a sell-point for the Doge Whales to cash out. I PROMISE.

Please trust me when I tell you, that this is the 3rd serious, SERIOUS attempt, to pump Doge to $1.

The first time, it made it to $0.004 from $0.001. The second time, it made it to $0.72. This time, it has recovered back up to now $0.43 from the sell-off of whales SNL mark.

Is it going to hit its goal and sell off before it even lands on Coinbase? Guess what... if so, then the actual launch on Coinbase will simply help it rally above the sell-off point again. It is much more likely to hit lets say $0.80 and sell down to $0.49 and labor to climb back up to $0.72, than it is to pass $1 and maintain value there.

Keep in mind, if the expectation is to get in between $0.32 and $0.43, and hold at least until $1, and then enjoy spending with twice as much money, or cash out at more than double the investment, or to HODL because much wow and then what... there needs to be an enormous amount of capital to outpace the sheer volume it is emitting.

Listen, don't hate me for asking questions that could be the difference between you, and all your frenz getting rekt beyond logic, or getting rich beyond your wildest dreams. Vote for Pedro, he will make all of your wildest dreams come true. I did. He didn't, but still a classic.

So, as I mentioned. I like Doge. I love the culture that has sustained us for years in crypto, keeping a smile on the face, remembering sometimes not to take one's self too seriously, enjoying the fact that even a coin built with entirely intentionally all of the wrong economics can pump like gasoline because, when it lies dormant at teeny market cap and easy mining, it is Ohhh Soooo easy to pump.

But, my concern is that Elon and Cuban get to flapping their meme-centric billionaire mouths, and suddenly people think this is the serious wave of the future. Buy the rumor, sell the news, is exactly what has happened every... single... time. I don't care if it makes it to $1 and I wasn't on the Doge train. I don't care if it tanks to where it belonged before the mass pumps from 2020 forward... I'm watching, enjoying the entertainment, because that is what it was built to provide. Once the creator realized it was successful as a joke, and got over the panic of "what if people put real money into this, are they gonna kill me if it tanks?" he found solace in the fact that people seem "Brave New World"-ishly gleeful whether it tanks or moons. The dog is smiling at me, what more does it take to make you weirdo investors happy?

There's more to life than money. Sure, and that's why the majority of my life is about my God, my Wife, and 1-5 times a day about food. I love my family, I care about people, I long for a future where a large majority of my time is devoted to pouring funds into helping communities fight opioid addiction, helping people learn exponential growth, writing, composing songs and putting some promotional fuel behind licensing my music once again. But, for now, it is the path, the journey, of earning the rest of the way through my own personal exponential growth curve.

For others, my hope is that being in crypto, means trying to accomplish what crypto is meant to accomplish in their lives.

For those who's life centers around Doge, this piece is for you.

I have family that is unbelievably over-invested in Doge... not crypto... Doge.

With an interest in trading, day trading, swing trading, most often they find their comfort-pattern in investing or somewhat unplanned HODLing.

People who are 100% in, on crypto, die-hard idealists who believe... no... they KNOW crypto is the future, and are insulted by speculation, see traders as traitors, and refuse to witness economics as part of the digital currency economy, will forever miss the point of learning to call the market movement correctly.

There is a very good chance that there is enough money, at this point, for billionaires to exploit the fanaticism of Doge through a few more pumps, but at some point, if people's savings, future, expectations, love for reality is somehow based on what Doge is going to do, instead of what Doge has already done, there is a solid 50% chance it is not going to end well. I am absolutely hoping for the other 50%. We are all better off if everyone who gets into Doge, also escapes with more money than where they began. That means there is more healthy profit to enter into other coins of value.

The wild speculation from Wall Street Bets pump and dump schemes is exactly what is going to invite the kind of regulations we do NOT want. Do I love the fact that Doge became the people's revolution against Robinhood when they controlled markets? Heck yeah I do! But, dunno if you noticed or not, other exchanges did the exact same thing... nobody noticed, because the majority involved didn't understand.

When you are led around by the nose, sometimes you are distracted from reality because the nose is wet... you believe it is the sign of a healthy dog. Will the Brits find a dog pound? Doge = 1 British pound? I don't know. It will take all of the HODLers HODLing while $3-4B in NEW investments come in on top, in order for it to sustain above $0.35+ long enough to pump back to $0.6, and from there the question is whether a few $B can cash out in that range to save losses and go back in at the next dip, but the dip stops before $0.3 to pump back up $10-30B. I am fearful that some people in the Doge economy think that is simple, because Doge has, like, a $30B MarketCap on a weak day now. Should I tell them what that means, or leave it there for angry dogs to comment how wrong I am? I haven't decided.

Yes I have. I can't leave it hanging.

MarketCap is referring to volume centered around price action. Volume is how many times a buy and a sell are taking place. The same $100 can pass through 1000 times in a 24 hour period. It is entirely possible for a $1 million marketcap to come for $2-3K. I'm not saying the value of investments in Doge aren't immense. They are. YUGE! Dangerously yuge.

So, what is your aim with your Doge HODL? Keep it all because it is the future? Sure, Elon may make good with his dedication to the current 'developers' of Doge. He is a genius, albeit a nasty one. He could improve the dynamics of Doge and turn it into something economically viable. Mark Cuban could absolutely have an angle with Doge payments, and he is into NFT's as well. But, sometimes telling people "xyz is the future" is only a perfect means of temporarily pumping the memes.

Elon could convince Doge programmers to change the economic model to a limited supply, or a varying supply based on some other dynamic, or create a controlled burn, or a myriad of things. Is it possible there is a Litecoin angle to their interest in Doge? I hear that is a possibility.

My concern, my real concern, is that cute stops being funny, and real money tied up in the adorable meme that I genuinely appreciate, becomes a liability for the future of a generation, who really and truly did not understand being played in the short squeeze, with a coin that prior, had never made it it past $0.017. It was 2018, and Doge popped at the exact same moment that money shifted from top alts to dirt. People said it was going to $1 at that time too, even though my calculations said it would take roughly (ruffly?) $13 Trillion dollars to do so.

 Doge will either see unprecedented, illogical returns for people willing to part with it at the next top, and wait until the next dip, or it will never make it to the volume trade and hold necessary for it to outpace supply.

You may think that Coinbase listing is validation for the coin, so of course it is going to moon and even go to $10 next. Maybe so. If yes, then there is a LOT more capital available on the market than I am aware of. Power to the people. But, Coinbase and others would be foolish not to list Doge. They don't have to show confidence in the price model. You may be new to this, so you may not have thought this through. Coinbase does not care about the price of Doge. If you buy it and it goes down, they make money. If you buy it and it goes up, they make money. If you and your friends buy and sell Doge often, they make money often. The only actors in crypto guaranteed to make money, unless they have a lousy business model and trading engine, are the exchanges. They do not care about price action. They do care about popularity.

So, please enjoy Doge for what you get out of it. Enjoy the picture. Enjoy owning a piece of history. Enjoy being a part of the culture. It is fun. It is mine plz lovely wow muching. But, if your strategy is to be among the clever who get rich with solid investments yo, Doge may or may not be converted into a more usable utility. If it does, you may get your value back some day. If it doesn't, this is just a reminder that it was never designed to be a good investment in the first place.

And on that dog-day, treat-sized bit, crypto Gordon Freeman, for now... out.

Ruff. Ruff.