I did something you should never do, waste time arguing on FB.

Somebody in a FB group about crypto argued that you should "just wait for next altcoin season and take profit", to which I replied, "well, I'm not sure, some altcoins may never recover, depending on when you bought them".

And of course this guy replied with the usual mixture of defiant claims and insults and so on.

So I shrugged and ignored him.

But that was food for thought, so I went back and double checked something I was already sure about.

I had a look at what was going on on November 28, 2021, a snapshot provided by CoinMarketCap.

2021 was the year BTC topped $50k and also $60k.

When you look at the top 10 back then, apart from BTC, USDT and USDC, you'll find two that are broadly in the same range, two that are nearly dead, one that severely underperformed and only one that overperformed.

XRP is the only true winner.

It was worth peanuts back then, and it's on the rise today.

Then you have BNB and SOL, both are in the same range, more or less, with BNB being worth more today ($650+ vs $610) and SOL being worth less ($150 vs $200), then there's Ethereum, which was worth $4k+ back then, and it's struggling to stay above $2,500 today.

Then there's Cardano and Polkadot, that are basically dead.

Polkadot was worth $35 back then, and it's barely worth $3 now, is it ever going back up? I don't see how.

I think we have enough historical data to know that when BTC goes down, it always comes back up.

The others? Not so much.