The easiest way to get it wrong, whatever the subject, regardless of your point of view, is to assume everyone else will think what we think. Do what we do. Want what we want.

So when it comes to money, for example, you're 100% guaranteed to get it wrong if you assume different people from different countries will automatically go about spending, saving and investing their money the same way.

The other day I was having a beer with a Welsh guy who lives in the UK.

He's a crypto guy, but he also seems to believe in CBDCs.

"They're coming," he said. "It's the future."

Well that, unfortunately, we can agree on.

And then he said something else.

"It's gonna happen in China, it's happening in the UK, the EU as well, and the US as well" he conluded. "These places will go cashless. Soon."

Well, now.

It will happen in China, for sure.

Probably sooner than later, because the power over there is centralised, and there's a strong propaganda that people tend to believe and fundamentally agree with.

It will happen in the UK, because the country is already de-facto cashless.

It won't happen in the EU. And it won't happen in the US.

"Well, it won't happen the US," I told him. "People outside the US, especially in Europe, tend to think US = California and New York but these two states only matter culturally."

The will and sentiment of the people in the US, or any other country for that matter, hardly ever coincides with the sentiment of said country's most culturally relevant and famous cities.

I gave my friend Brexit as an people. London, by far and away the UK's most prominent and famous city, voted against. The rest of country voted for. And that's how Brexit happened.

If there's one thing I've learnt since the war started, by proxy, is that people created leaders, not the other way around.

In other words, the will of the people matters more than we think.

I was born and raised in a country that strongly dislikes and distrusts cahsless payments. Over the last 20 years, I've seen virtually no progress at all in that respect. People still prefer cash. As a result, credit/debit card adoption is still relatively low.

You can't make people do things they don't want to. Placid countries, such as my own, will simply ignore the rules. Other countries, such as the US, will resort to violence if necessary.

I now live in an eastern European country that's halfway between Italy and the US.

Back in 2021, when the government announced yet another Covid lockdown, people took to the streets. And then they marched. And then they reached government buildings.

And their message was clear, "ditch your Covid lockdown or we'll kill you". The message was well received.

And guess what happened? No more Covid lockdowns.

The prospect of ditching cash altogether would bring exactly the same result.

It would be received with even more violence in several US states, where people have guns and are willing to use them.

Meanwhile, elsewhere, it would be ignored in the country I was born in, where people are lazy. But they also never do anything the government tells them to do, unless they agree with it.

In the long run, it's entirely possible that even these three 'hardcore' countries will succumb.

More propaganda, a better pitch for CBDCs, a new generations with newer, different ideas.

We don't know.

What we do know is this is exactly where Bitcoin comes into play.

In a dystopian future, if and when several pieces of the puzzle fall into the place, any government in the world can, in theory, potentially, get rid of cash.

It's very unlikely in my opinion, and it won't happen for 100 years, but it's possible.

Getting rid of Bitcoin, however, is impossible.

That's our Plan B.