COT Analysis (from 8 September to 22 September)

Who was selling? who was buying? 

First stop Gold

Non-Commercials exit longs for 3 week alongside completely stable short positions. Unwinding Long positions. Distribution rather than short attack.
Managed Money simultaneously selling and sharing the same view.

Over 3 weeks we see no significant positive change in Longs, so buyers who sustained the rally to 4510 where absent and in its absence the support of 4110 was broken with out defense.

Copper

Unlike Gold here we have a bipolar pattern. exiting of longs with immediate reentry by Non-Commercials. managed money also move in the same direction on 22 Sep (+17.4k) .

so who sold on 28 Sep we don't know yet.

Last stop, Silver

who sold? nothing significant here. Non-Commercials gently trimmed long positions without initiating new shorts. market makers remained virtually neutral. so there are no seller or buyer in data and this absence is a diagnosis by itself. this was simply a vacuum of  buyers and a slight sell pressure.

TA (Technical Analysis)

Copper

has divergence and a double top but it has not close under previous month high on daily time frame, so my first alert has not been trigged. under PMH we have a green kumo for support or a sell take profit with a tight stop. we should carefully watch lower time frames for intraday trades. Copper has industrial demand in AI and other sectors and it may resume its up trend again so be extra careful with shorts.

Gold

had retraced near 80% from its local top and has reached near previous month low (the root of its impulse) so it is a risky place to sell. I rather stay aside and make my decision on reaction to  PML or PDL and see a valid change of character in lower time frames.

Silver

I will decide base upon gold. because of COT data I think silver will follow gold with a time lag.

Conclusion

The trade agreement between China and the US must also be taken into account. Reduction of trade war risk and its impact on metals. remember absent buyer of gold in COT data?!.

 It worth mentioning that currency pairs had a daily doji candle against the big red candle in metals.

This is not financial advice and always do your own research.

Wishing you all success and profitability.