The situation in the world economy amid the coronavirus epidemic is worsening so quickly that even the most respected organizations have to rewrite macro forecasts every week. The global theme of the IMF, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs Sachs forecasts was the global recession.

The current epidemic is already the sixth in the 21st century: it was preceded by outbreaks of SARS, 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic, swine flu, MERS, and Ebola. In each of these cases, after a sharp drop in the stock market, recovery began. This is especially noticeable against the outbreak of SARS and swine flu.

JPMorgan writes that during the SARS epidemic, the markets with the highest number of cases (China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan) sank most. And market volatility was even in markets that were not affected by SARS. The most important thing from the report is that as soon as the epidemic subsided, economic activity quickly returned to the level before the outbreak, and the stock market moved to a rebound. The recovery was serious in all sectors.

Another important example is the outbreak of swine flu in 2009-2010. More than four months after the epidemic began, clinical trials of the swine flu vaccine began.

So, that global community vaccine development efforts could trigger a market reversal. For example, from the moment the swine flu vaccine was invented until the end of the epidemic, the S&P500 index grew by 20%.

Such indicators are important for the cryptocurrency market. Now, amid all the news about coronavirus, the correlation between the S&P500 index and the bitcoin price, according to Arcane Research, has grown to its highest values.

Based on this correlation and historical data, the invention of a vaccine against coronavirus can trigger a price increase of bitcoin amid an increase of the S&P 500 index.

The United States, Germany, Russia, and China - no less than 35 laboratories around the world are now trying to create a vaccine against coronavirus. The first trials of the SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus vaccine have already begun in the U.S. at the Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute on March 16.

But the discovery and confirmation of the effectiveness of the vaccine is still a long way off. In a recent interview with CNN, Bill Gates indicates that it will take up to 18 months to create the vaccine, and quarantine should be extended for 6-10 weeks. Given his accurate 2015 forecast of a pandemic as the main threat to modern civilization and the successful operation of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, such statements seem very balanced.

So, I have to recall that for the movement of asset prices, the general economic conditions and sentiment in the global market remain an important factor.