Today (was when started writing) is the first anniversary since the Bitcoin all time high of $A190,538 October 2025. But it is probably only those of us who are watchers of the 4 year halvening cycle who will be celebrating this anniversary.
the Naysayers in 2025
“The cycle is dead,” killed by institutional adoption, Ki Young Ju, founder CryptoQuant, July 2025
Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle is Dead, Here’s Why Bull Run is Not Over Godfrey Benjamin, a blockchain enthusiast and journalist, November 2025
“It’s not officially over until we see positive returns in 2026. But I think we will, so let’s say this: I think the 4-year cycle is over” Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, August 2025
Even the suits can suffer from Bitcoin’s euphoria stage, it is not only just retail (aka the Dumb Money). Sometimes the Smart Money can be just as Dumb.
Dumb Money (2023)
The halvening 4 year cycle
There has been only 4 complete cycles in Bitcoins brief history, with all time highs:
- November 25, 2013: BTC hit $1,163, then crashed 87% to $164 over 13 months
- December 11, 2017: BTC hit $19,666, then crashed 84% to $3,122 over 12 months
- November 8, 2021: BTC hit $69,000, then crashed 77% to $15,460 over 12 months
- October 6, 2025: BTC hit $126,080, then crashed……TBA
This latest 4 year cycle has been different from previous cycles in that Bitcoin made an all time high prior to the 2024 halving. So yes this time is different but the cycle is definitely still alive. But the influence of the halving and the resultant supply shock will continue to lessen. One can make it as complicated as you want or you can just keep it simple
Hope you too enjoyed celebrating Bitcoin’s anniversary
DISCLAIMER: the sign off image is for all the Looney Tunes fans and @CondiviSulWeb who could be a closet Daffy Duck fan
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