In this post we analyze how accurate are predictions on total goals over/under 2.5 for English Premier League games and how profitable are strategies, which are based on these predictions. We use predictions from source A https://www.ispreport.xyz/utools/predict/cur/predict.html and source B https://www.predictz.com/predictions/today/over-under-25-goals/ , which are available for free.

We calculate accuracy and returns on investments for five strategies:

-strategy A, bet on predictions given by A;

-strategy B, bet on predictions given by B;

-strategy A+B, bet on predictions given by A and B if they are the same;

-strategy A-B, bet on predictions given by A if predictions of B are the opposite to A;

-strategy B-A, bet on predictions given by B if predictions of A are the opposite to B.

There are three types of accuracy:

-accuracy of over (ratio in % of accurate predictions of over to total number of predictions of over), we use AO for this type of accuracy;

-accuracy of under (ratio in % of accurate predictions of under to total number of predictions of under), we use AU for this type of accuracy;

-total accuracy (ratio in % of all accurate predictions to total number of all predictions), we use AT for this type of accuracy;

The table below shows all predictions and results for week 43 (from October 24 to 30 of 2022).

We use “o” for over, “u” for under, and “n” for not to bet in this table.

The table below shows AO, AU, and AT (in %) for five strategies: A, B, A+B, A-B, B-A.

As we can see the most accurate strategies for bets over on this week are A, A+B, A-B and the least accurate strategy is B-A. The most accurate strategy for bets under on this week is A-B and the least accurate is B-A. The most accurate strategy for all bets on this week is A-B and the least accurate is B-A.

The table below shows returns on investments (ROI_O, ROI_U, and ROI_T) for five strategies: A, B, A+B, A-B, B-A in %.

As we can see the highest ROI_O on this week is for strategy A+B and the lowest ROI_O is for strategy B-A. The highest ROI_U on this week is for strategy A-B and the lowest ROI_U is for strategy B-A. The highest ROI_T for all bets on this week is for strategy A-B and the lowest ROI_T is for strategy B-A.

The interesting observation is that by combining predictions A, B we increased the total ROI (from 19.1% in A to 30.33% in A-B).

Strategies A and A+B generated positive ROI for three consecutive weeks (!!!).

For calculations of ROIs we use odds from these sources:

https://www.football-data.co.uk

The previous post https://www.publish0x.com/analysis-of-predictions-in-sports/analysis-of-predictions-in-sports-week-42-xmygkwv

P.S. On these blogs you can find solutions to many problems:

https://www.publish0x.com/practical-data-science-and-optimization-in-examples

https://www.publish0x.com/simple-solutions-to-complex-problems