In this post we analyze how accurate are predictions on total goals over/under 2.5 for English Premier League games and how profitable are strategies, which are based on these predictions.

We calculate accuracy and returns on investments for five strategies:

-strategy A, bet on predictions given by A;

-strategy B, bet on predictions given by B;

-strategy A+B, bet on predictions given by A and B if they are the same;

-strategy A-B, bet on predictions given by A if predictions of B are the opposite to A;

-strategy B-A, bet on predictions given by B if predictions of A are the opposite to B.

There are three types of accuracy:

-accuracy of over (ratio in % of accurate predictions of over to total number of predictions of over), we use AO for this type of accuracy;

-accuracy of under (ratio in % of accurate predictions of under to total number of predictions of under), we use AU for this type of accuracy;

-total accuracy (ratio in % of all accurate predictions to total number of all predictions), we use AT for this type of accuracy;

The table below shows all predictions and results for week 2 (from January 2, 2023 to January 8, 2023).

We use “o” for over, “u” for under, and “n” for not to bet in this table.

The table below shows AO, AU, and AT (in %) for five strategies: A, B, A+B, A-B, B-A.

As we can see the most accurate strategy for bets over on this week is A+B and the least accurate strategy is B-A. The most accurate strategies for bets under on this week are A, A+B, the least accurate strategy is A-B. The most accurate strategy for all bets on this week is A+B and the least accurate is B-A.

The table below shows returns on investments (ROI_O, ROI_U, and ROI_T) for five strategies: A, B, A+B, A-B, B-A in %.

As we can see the highest ROI_O on this week is for strategy A+B and the lowest ROI_O is for strategy B-A. The highest ROI_U on this week is for strategies A, A+B the lowest ROI_U is for strategy B-A. The highest ROI_T for all bets on this week is for strategy A+B and the lowest ROI_T is for strategy B-A.

Total ROIs per each week are shown in the table below.

The additional advantage of this type of investment (compare with other types) is that you do not risk the whole invested capital, only a fraction of it.

The next advantage of this type of investment is that it does not correlate with financial markets and can not be manipulated by central banks and governments.

An investor can think of investing in bets as investments in high risk NFTs or DeFi projects with high ROIs. The difference only that instead of locking invested capital on many months, it is locked only on a couple of hours (duration of soccer games). This allows investors to increase speed of generation of positive returns on small amounts of available capital.

For calculations of ROIs we use odds from these sources:

https://www.football-data.co.uk