Image of an etherial Bitcoin spinning.

When Orange Beats Blue: A Warning from Open Interest


This is one chart that I think is worth watching. It’s wonky, but stick with me as it’s worth it.

What you’re seeing below is the open interest (OI) for Others (in orange), which basically means “everything that isn’t BTC or ETH.” Alongside that, we’re looking at dominance, which indicates how much of the total OI belongs to Others. Bitcoin’s OI dominance is the blue line.

Image of BTC Open Interest v Other Open Interest

Think of it as a tug-of-war: blue (BTC) vs. orange (the entire rest of crypto).

Now, here’s the interesting part. In March 2024 and again in December 2024, Others OI dominance flipped BTC’s dominance. Both times, that orange line climbed over the blue one, and both times, within about two weeks… the market started to tumble. Like clockwork, only with less cheering.

Right now, we’re back in that same setup. Others OI dominance is just about to flip BTC’s again.

So, what do you do if it happens? Here’s my take:

Step 1: Simplify your portfolio.
If you’re juggling 27 altcoins with names that sound like failed energy drinks, now’s the time to pair it down. Make it manageable.

Step 2: Know your exit strategy.
Don’t wait until panic mode to figure out when you’ll sell. Be crystal clear on your sell signals now, while you still have a pulse and coffee in hand.

Step 3: Take a little profit early (probably)
Not saying go full Scrooge McDuck and dive into cash, but trimming some gains off the table never hurt anyone. Except maybe your inner degenerate gambler.

To be clear: Others OI dominance doesn’t have a 20-year backtest or a Nobel Prize behind it. The sample size is tiny, so it could be coincidence. That’s why I don’t see this as a “sell everything and move to the woods” signal. It’s more of a “better make sure the bug-out bag is packed” signal.

Happy Trading!!

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Sebastian Purcell, PhD
Sebastian Purcell, PhD

CEO for both 1.2 Capital and 1.2 Labs | I'm an academic turned crypto hedge fund manager and incubator director.


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1.2 Labs Research Insights

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