That's one of Warran Buffett's most famous adages. It might apply in times like the present.

The current month is shaping up to be the 2nd worst February on record for $BTC-- since 2014.

It's the worst February on record for $ETH. And this month makes for 9 down months out of the last 14. Only the 2018-2019 crash topped this by logging 10 down months in a 14-month period.

But the point holds, things are bad. Exceptionally bad for a strong macro environment. And that makes me think that we may be nearing a local bottom.

1 Risk to Reward Opportunities

The market was elated after Trump's victory and, frankly, rose too much too quickly. Now, however, the TOTAL is hovering just 3.75% above its SMA 200.

This signals, first, that the Bull Run isn't over.

It also signals that things are finally cheap on a relative basis. Provided you have some well-structured entry / exit points, this might be the chance to buy.

2 My Favorite "Index" Coin

The $JLP coin delivers fees from Jupiter traders back to token holders. It's also composed of $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, and stablecoins.

Typically, it exhibits less volatility than $BTC itself and has roughly equal yearly returns.

At present, it's holding above its SMA 200, so now might be an interesting time to pick some up should we have a March bounce.

3 Virtual Protocol

Once the price for $virtual hovered some 87% above its SMA 200. Now, it's fallen just below that level.

There might be noise in trading this one, so be nimble, but the price appears to have held up relatively well recently.

If we see a March bounce up, this project, one of the best AI plays of 2024, might be well-positioned.

4 The $BNB AI Play

Recently, $BNB began to shoot off because top AI agents were launched on the chain. Yesterday, it dropped just below its SMA 200.

Should that play return (and the market has a memory long enough for that), then this might be your chance to enter this trade at a nice price.

5 The $SPX Play

If there is one meme coin that most symbolizes the supposed "meme coin super cycle," then it's $SPX. This is the top coin associated with Maurad.

Currently, it's bouncing near a relatively strong support line. Now might be your chance to pick up what is widely considered the best "cult coin" out there.

6 Concluding Thoughts

I recognize that much of the fear in the market turns on the way that the Trump administration has been reconfiguring geopolitical alliances and threatening tariffs.

We just don't know what he's going to do, so yes, some caution is warranted.

Right now, however, the market is putting in lower lows in a way that mirrors the collapse of FTX ... and almost the $Luna implosion.

It's just too much too quickly to the downside.

Of course, things can always melt down further. DYOR. NFA.

The situation we're in, however, surprises me for its speed. The only comparable event that I can remember is the mid-2021 bull market when China banned all $BTC miners. Trump is apparently acting on the market with a similar force.

And cryptos did recover from that and continued to rally.

So, remember there is nothing in these declines to suggest that they are abnormal features of a bull market. Stay safe, but also be mindful of the developing deals.

Happy Trading!

-Sebastian Purcell, PhD

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