Market and Bitcoin intrinsic value updated

By PatronMaster | You_crypto | 4 Aug 2021


In my last post, I shared a way to calculate the intrinsic value of Bitcoin. If you are an investor like me (not a trader), you are not affected by the sentiment but just by the financial data.

In this post, you will find:

  • Current Market Sentiment.
  • Bitcoin intrinsic value update.
  • Portfolio update.


Current Market Sentiment

Bitcoin Fear & Greed index jump 27 to 48, and we observe this movement on Bitcoin Price.

In the stock market, the Fear & Greed index is decreasing from 45 to 24.

Very funny, there was a sentiment inversion, but I think it is temporary. In my opinion, Bitcoin will adjust the sentiment and following stock market sentiment.

Stock Market  Frea & Greed IndexBitcoin fear & Greed Index


This sentiment of the stock market most of them is because of high stock prices and Inflation.

The PE ratio is about 34 when the average is 19. 

PE ratio

Also, we have inflation that is increasing worldwide (in the USA already at 5.4%), which leaves some know investors like Michael Burry (the incredible investor known for the movie The Big Short) and Bill Gates sell most of your positions and try short the market. This is because in order to control inflation you need to increase the Interest Rate. With high-Interest Rates, the stock market will have poor performance (or crash).

Some countries already increase the Interest Rate like Russia, Turkey, and Argentina.

Russia example (Interest Rate, last 12 Months).

Russia Interest Rate


Bitcoin intrinsic value update

Last days Bitcoin's price was between 37k and 42k that's is about my intrinsic value model (check my last post).

Forcast Bitcoin intrinsic value

This negative stock market sentiment could affect the crypto space. I think this Bitcoin price increase last week was due to speculation (some good news about Germany and B-Word event).

Please do not misinterpret glassnode indicators or other indicators like trade volume. The last time Bitcoin supply decreased a lot in centralized exchanges (see below figure), the Bitcoin price increased a lot. This time Bitcoin supply also decreases but was due to KYC demands by Binance (Now it is just possible to withdraw 0.06 per day without KYC, this led many people to withdraw their Bitcoin from Binance). This affected several indicators like volume and others indicators used by the traders (maybe Bitcoin Fear & Greed index also was affected).

glassnode exchanges BTC

Portfolio update.

Coin Bureau seems bought more Bitcoin and decrease a little bit the Ethereum and USDC. 

The biggest surprise for me was that he bought PAXG maybe he doesn't want to have USDC because of inflation. For me, it's still early because I can earn 10% interest on USDC and with PAXG only 3%. That means gold needs to increase 7% in a year to be a good deal for me.


My current crypto portfolio

My Portfolio

My goal now is to strengthen my Bitcoin position, but I will buy little by little when the Bitcoin price is below 30k. I'm using a defensive approach as usual, so I have half of my portfolio in stable currencies, waiting for big opportunities (if I'm wrong, at least I earn 10% interest). My biggest position is ETH because I use it almost every day and I need ETH to do my transactions.

What is your current portfolio? What do think about current situation?

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