Good morning
A new year started, happy new year. I think it should be a good year for XRP holders... let's hope I am right!
In my last update I stated that I wasn't sure that the correction after the initial impulse to start wave 5 completed. Around Xmas & New Year there was some boring sideways price action, it felt like a triangle. While a triangle did not work as a 2nd wave, it could have been the Y-wave of a WXY correction. However that idea failed early in the year as the triangle broke to the downside :
I think we have a zigzag lower (W), followed by a triangle (X)... now in the Y wave, and that should be another zigzag lower, so I expect that we could go a bit lower but this move can certainly also end in a truncation. The low on exchange charts will most likely hold since the correction spike did go a lot lower on those charts, that is also why I use this exchange neutral tool to count waves. Anyways, once the correction completes we should see strength for wave iii of V. We must stay above the October low, that is the place where the initial impulse started. I think from that place we have a pretty clear upward impulse so as long as that low holds we can keep our upward bias.
Big picture :
Well the count is not that bullish in the short term, especially not after this deep retrace for a wave 2 of V, for degree reasons the third wave of V limit is about 1 dollar (a subwave cannot be bigger then a wave of higher degree), then after a retrace for a 4th wave (could be sideways) we can push to the 1,3 or so - that's about the highest it can go without degree violation. At that point a bigger correction would have to be expected.
The count of a diagonal was certainly more bullish, but I changed the count because that diagonal did not respecting time/price ratio. That said, the initial rise from the low, the move of higher degree was a diagonal. Another diagonal is not really required, but the upward move is going slow and I don't think that is going to change anytime soon. Maybe that is what bothering me a bit, a subwave that is wasting so much time...
That's all for now. Have a good week & year!
